From 6 o'clock yesterday to 6 o'clock today, the low point of BTC was 54,600 and the high point was 62,700, with a difference of 8,000 dollars, a range of 15%. From the extreme plunge of 49k on August 5, it continued to rise to 61k in just over 3 days, with a total increase of nearly 25%.
This rapid rise is to clear the high-multiple short positions. The purpose of the market maker is very clear. The sharp drop on Monday cleared more than 3 times the long positions, and the rebound and rapid rise cleared the short positions arranged at various pressure points, specifically killing technical analysts. I don’t know how many times in a year there will be such a 3-day 25% increase opportunity, and how many times in a person’s entire investment career can he seize the full position? Therefore, those who advise people to cut losses during the sharp drop are either stupid or bad.
If a newbie listens to the call to sell at a loss when he is afraid and sells at 49k, then just 3 days later, if he buys back at 61k, he will immediately lose nearly 1/5 of the BTC, that is, a loss of 20% of the position. 5 BTC sold at a loss, 3 days later there will be 4 BTC left.
Loss of 1 BTC in 3 days.
If he does not buy back, his loss will increase as BTC continues to rise. When BTC rises to 98k, he will lose half of his BTC. But even if BTC drops to 49k again, he may still not dare to buy back, because at that time, there will definitely be more voices telling him that BTC will continue to fall, 30k, 20k,...
The final outcome is likely to be that he loses his position and BTC forever.
Back to today’s analysis:
From the K-line, the 1-hour level is in a correction, the 4-hour and 12-hour levels are in an upward trend, and the daily line entered an upward trend today. The operation suggestion is to go long on the correction, and shorting is not recommended unless the 12-hour level enters a downward trend. The intraday pressure level is 63,000, and the support level is 59,300.
The recent market situation is simply hell for swing traders
1. It fell and there was no rebound, with a drop of 20%-30%.
2. The price goes up without any pullback, and the increase is 20%-30%
It is the familiar market situation where the price has not changed but the position has disappeared. In the past two months, there have been four waves of unilateral market, each wave has a fluctuation of 20%+. In the middle, there will be an adjustment of about 5 points at the 4-hour level, but no shock has been formed; causing most people to be in a loss state: "I went short at the top and long at the bottom, but I followed the shock idea so I stopped profit too early. In the end, I didn't get out of a wave of shock, and all became trends, which were constantly worn out;"
At present, the trend of Bitcoin has deviated from the trend that everyone is familiar with in the past. The market is being smashed and pulled up very quickly. It has not been pulled back where it should be, and it has not been fluctuating where it should be. When it deviates from the cognitive framework again and again, we need to calm down.
When doing trading, we say that we should trust our own eyes rather than the images in our minds.
Whether it was the peak from 54,000 on July 8 or the sudden increase yesterday, Bitcoin did not bring obvious wealth creation effect to the market. The copycats are still sluggish, and the increase of some copycats yesterday was not as good as Bitcoin. Without the locomotive effect, it is hard to say that the market is "bullish again".
Look at the facts calmly and objectively. Every time the bitcoin price rises/slumps due to news, it seems that nothing is left except a bunch of liquidation data.
I think the real Niu Hui can only look at the following two scenarios:
- Bitcoin broke through 70,000 and then set a new high, completely moving out of the structural market
- Dabing can lead the crazy performance of Shanzhai and return to the logic we are familiar with before
In addition, blindly chasing long/bottom-fishing will only result in being buried. Try again and again, make mistakes again and again. A real bull market will not be bad for this little increase. Repeatedly being killed and being trapped will seriously affect your mentality. It is better to watch the show first and see how the pie will go.
Only use strength to speak, and use value to reflect! We will help you control the position accurately and grasp the profit. When the market is good, you can make money no matter how you play, but you must know that the market will not always be good! ! ! When to buy and when to sell in the market is important. If you want to get higher returns, the choice is yours, and choice is greater than hard work!
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