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Macro News

1. The National Development and Reform Commission and three other departments issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Construction of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Standard Measurement System Action Plan (2024-2025)", which mentioned that the energy consumption standards in the industrial field should be improved. Revise and increase the unit product energy consumption limit standards for key industries such as steel, oil refining, coal-fired power generation units, pulp and paper making, industrial caustic soda, and rare earth smelting, and accelerate the research, formulation and revision of carbon emission accounting standards and technical specifications for key industries such as electricity, coal, steel, nonferrous metals, textiles, transportation, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and construction.

2. Recently, in the cases investigated by the NAFMII, some small and medium-sized financial institutions have violated regulations such as lending bond accounts and transferring benefits in treasury bond transactions. The NAFMII has transferred some of the serious violators to the People's Bank of China for administrative penalties, and is stepping up investigations into other clues of such cases.

3. Shanghai Futures Energy announced that the account group's intraday opening trading volume exceeded the limit on the 2504 contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures on August 8, 2024, and reached the processing standard of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange for the first time. Shanghai Futures Energy decided to take regulatory measures against the relevant customers to restrict their opening of positions on the corresponding contracts for 5 trading days.

4. Following last week's disappointing jobs report, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week fell by the largest amount in nearly a year, which may ease some concerns that the labor market has cooled too quickly. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000 in the week ending August 3.

5. Compared with the previous rounds of deposit rate cuts, this time some small and medium-sized banks have significantly increased the adjustment of 3-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates, with the highest reduction reaching 80 basis points, far exceeding the reduction of deposit rates of various terms by large banks and joint-stock banks. After this substantial reduction, the deposit rates of many small and medium-sized banks have also bid farewell to the era of "3".

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices rose across the board, with the September contract of U.S. crude up 1.14% to $76.09 per barrel, and the October contract of Brent crude up 0.89% to $79.03 per barrel.

2. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.44% to $2,467.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.53% to $27.625 per ounce.

3. Most of the base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper futures up 0.67% to $8,809/ton, LME zinc futures up 2.38% to $2,643/ton, LME nickel futures down 0.74% to $16,175/ton, LME aluminum futures down 0.17% to $2,284/ton, LME tin futures up 1.96% to $30,580/ton and LME lead futures up 0.74% to $1,982/ton.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell across the board, with soybean futures down 1.08% to 1007.75 cents per bushel; corn futures fell 1.06% to 396.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures fell 0.33% to 536.5 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic commodity futures closed at night, energy and chemical products rose and fell, fuel oil, low sulfur fuel oil, glass rose by more than 1%, PTA, pulp fell by 1.6%. Black series fell across the board, coke fell by 1.64%, iron ore fell by 1.15%. Agricultural products rose and fell, soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell by 1%. Most base metals closed higher, alumina rose by 4.96%, Shanghai tin rose by 3.82%, Shanghai lead rose by 2.86%, Shanghai zinc rose by 2.35%, Shanghai aluminum rose by 0.71%, Shanghai nickel rose by 0.44%, Shanghai copper rose by 0.23%. Shanghai gold rose by 1.21%, Shanghai silver rose by 2.32%.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, as of the week of August 8, rebar production has fallen for the sixth consecutive week, factory inventory has fallen for the second consecutive week, social inventory has fallen for the fifth consecutive week, and surface demand has fallen for the fourth consecutive week. Among them, rebar production was 1.6854 million tons, a decrease of 292,100 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 14.77%, and surface demand for rebar was 1.9076 million tons, a decrease of 248,600 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 11.53%.

2. According to Mysteel, on August 8, mainstream steel mills in Tangshan market planned to reduce the price of wet quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, which will be implemented from 0:00 on August 10, 2024.

3. CCTV reporter learned from the Bureau of Commerce of Erlianhot City, Inner Mongolia that as of August 7, the Erenhot highway port had completed import and export cargo volume of 2.223 million tons, reaching last year's annual cargo volume 146 days ahead of schedule. So far this year, about 155,000 trucks have entered and exited the freight channel of the Erenhot highway port, and 550,000 tons of bulk mineral products such as iron ore and coal have been imported.

4. According to Mysteel, due to the rapid decline in the silicon-manganese market, the losses of southern manufacturers have intensified. The reduction and suspension of production in Guizhou, the main production area, has continued to increase in the past two weeks. As of the 8th, 10 silicon-manganese ore-fired furnaces in Guizhou have been suspended, and the daily output has decreased by 945 tons. It is expected that the manufacturers in production will continue to reduce and suspend production in the future. By the end of the month, the suspension situation may be as high as more than 90%. A factory in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, recently stopped production of one silicon-manganese alloy ore-fired furnace and another silicon-manganese alloy ore-fired furnace for maintenance, affecting a total daily output of about 350 tons.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. According to the monitoring of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, since late June, as the cost of imported soybeans has decreased, my country's purchases of Brazilian soybeans with a shipment date of July-August have increased. In addition, some soybean imports with a shipment date of June have been postponed to August. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported soybeans in my country will remain huge in August-September, with an average monthly arrival volume of about 8.5 million tons. The domestic soybean supply will remain loose in the third quarter.

2. Data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that as of the week of August 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 98, compared with 111 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at the port was 4.5093 million tons, compared with 4.9669 million tons the previous week.

3. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 to 31 is estimated to increase by 11.93%, with an increase of 14.54% in the Malay Peninsula, 7.24% in East Malaysia, 5.40% in Sabah, and 10.75% in Sarawak.

4. India will maintain sugar export restrictions to ensure adequate domestic supplies and increase the country's ethanol production, market participants said. They said the government wants to ensure sufficient sugar supply for the local market at a reasonable price and use more sugarcane to produce ethanol.

5. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that U.S. net soybean export sales in 2023/2024 were 325,000 tons, higher than market expectations and compared with 376,000 tons in the previous week; net soybean sales in 2024/2025 were 985,000 tons, higher than market expectations and compared with 632,000 tons in the previous week.

6. The latest USDA drought report shows that as of the week of August 6, about 5% of the soybean planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 5% in the previous week and 43% in the same period last year. About 5% of the corn planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 5% in the previous week and 49% in the same period last year.

7. According to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of August 2, there were 59,817 on-call unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton, an increase of 2,623 lots from the previous month; and 86,184 unpriced buy orders, an increase of 670 lots from the previous month.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Enterprise Singapore (ESG), Singapore's fuel oil inventories rose by 172,000 barrels to a two-week high of 19.727 million barrels in the week ending August 7; Singapore's light distillate inventories fell by 327,000 barrels to a four-week low of 14.071 million barrels; Singapore's middle distillate inventories increased by 640,000 barrels to a three-year high of 11.993 million barrels.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.2245 million tons, down 7,400 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of sample float glass enterprises nationwide was 67.356 million TEUs, down 1.734 million TEUs from the previous period. The sample inventory of Chinese liquefied gas ports was 2.8256 million tons, up 408,900 tons from the previous period. This week, the output of soda ash was 752,600 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.40%.

3. According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, after research and decision, it is agreed that the storage point of Shandong Zhongchu International Logistics Co., Ltd. for No. 20 rubber futures will be adjusted from No. 45 Pengwan Road, Qianwan Bonded Port Area, Qingdao, Shandong Province to No. 1 Warehouse and No. 2 Warehouse (Zhongchu Comprehensive Bonded Warehouse), No. 68 Qianwangang Road, Qingdao Bonded Area, Shandong Province. At the same time, the approved storage capacity of futures will be increased from 10,000 tons to 30,000 tons, and the enabled storage capacity will be increased from 10,000 tons to 15,000 tons.

4. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, from 24:00 on August 8, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 305 and 290 yuan per ton respectively. On average across the country, No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will be reduced by 0.24 yuan, 0.25 yuan and 0.25 yuan per liter respectively.

Metal Hot News

1. According to the data from the China Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of passenger cars in the broad sense in July were 1.732 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. This year's overall automobile exports continued the strong growth characteristics of last year.

2. According to foreign media reports, people familiar with the matter said that BHP Billiton plans to sell its Brazilian copper and gold mining assets acquired through the acquisition of Australian mining company Oz Minerals. It is reported that after completing the strategic review of the above assets, BHP Billiton has hired Santander Bank to provide advice on potential sales negotiations.

3. According to the Daily Economic News, Albemarle, the world's largest lithium miner, recently announced a partial suspension of production at its lithium processing plant in Australia. Industry insiders pointed out that the impact is not significant. The key indicator is whether the mine production has been suspended, and the current supply of lithium mines has not yet reached its lowest period. The market needs to wait and see the recovery of demand and the emergence of an inflection point in supply and demand in the industry.

4. According to foreign media reports, Glencore said in a telephone briefing on Wednesday that it has accumulated 25,000 tons of unsold zinc inventory due to the expansion and production increase of its Zhairem project.

5. According to Mysteel, the domestic lithium carbonate production in July 2024 was 65,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.1%. The estimated domestic lithium carbonate production in August was 60,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.9%. Due to the current price-cost inversion, some external raw material production companies in Jiangxi are expected to reduce production in August. Combined with the reduction in orders from OEM companies, the lithium salt production in July is expected to decrease by 6.9% month-on-month.

6. According to foreign media reports, the UAE has suspended the activities of 32 gold refineries. According to a statement from the Ministry of Economy, the government is "strengthening inspection activities at factories" to combat financial crimes. These closed factories account for about 5% of the UAE's gold industry and will be shut down until October 24.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. The European line fell sharply. Has the bull market ended?

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that yesterday, several European contracts fell sharply. Let's take a look at the main driving factors behind it. First, on August 7, local time, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council said that despite the growing concerns about the outbreak of regional war after the assassination of Hamas leaders, Israel and Hamas are still close to reaching a ceasefire agreement. Iran said it is waging a psychological warfare with Israel and has not yet taken military action. The market has differences on whether Iran will take military action in the future and the scale of the military action taken, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may be cooling down; second, with the end of the peak shipping season in July and August, coupled with market concerns about global economic growth, investors expect future shipping demand to weaken. At the same time, they also pay attention to the recent acceleration of shipping companies' price adjustments, with each round of price cuts of 200-300 US dollars, which undoubtedly weakens the support of the market. Finally, let's look at the technical analysis. The European 2412 contract is testing the support of the low point of July 23, and there is no clear sign of stabilization. Once it breaks down, the decline may continue to expand.

2.Lithium carbonate futures prices hit a new low. What are the market’s core concerns?

​Guotou Anxin Futures analysis pointed out that lithium carbonate continued to fall and the market was active. The overall market inventory increased, and the downstream replenished 2,000 tons to 32,000 tons. The smelter inventory increased by 1,600 tons to 57,600 tons. The Australian ore quotation quickly dropped to US$875 per ton, which basically explained the recent decline in futures and spot prices. The core concerns of the market: ① Where will the Australian ore stop falling; ② What level can the futures and spot prices be opened to? The current futures discount is still too calm. Technically, lithium carbonate hit a new low, and shorts followed.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 9:30 on August 9, China announced the CPI and PPI data for July. Previous data showed that in June, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the PPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Pay attention to the latest data changes.

2. August 10th (To be determined) ITS/AmSpec/SGS will release Malaysia's palm oil export data from August 1st to 10th. Previous data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1st to 31st increased by 23% to 31% month-on-month. We will pay attention to whether the growth trend of Malaysia's palm oil exports can continue. If it continues to grow, it may be good for palm oil prices.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data