Second bottoming risk and bottom-fishing strategy

On August 7, 2024, the continued stabilization of the U.S. stock market brought a rebound opportunity to the cryptocurrency market. However, the large single-day fluctuations in the U.S. stock market revealed the existence of capital outflows and short-selling forces, and the fact that big names such as Buffett significantly reduced their holdings and held the current highs showed a cautious attitude towards the market.

Although the current B circle is supported by ETFs such as BlackRock, and most altcoins have been fully adjusted and the cost-effectiveness is evident, the potential risk of a sharp drop in the U.S. stock market is still a sword of Damocles hanging over its head. Once the U.S. stock market encounters a larger-scale decline, the currency circle may not be immune.

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However, such risks may also breed a turnaround. Black swan events may intensify quantitative easing and push the bull market highs up. In terms of current strategy, it is recommended to reserve 20% to 30% of funds for emergencies, and at the same time seize the opportunity of the band, such as I have partially reduced my position to lock in profits.

In the long run, the profit margin of the bull market is still considerable, but it is necessary to select the target and hold it firmly. In the short term, if the market can stabilize at the current position, it may avoid a deep correction and directly enter the rising channel. The second bottoming may appear within a week, and the probability of rising will gradually increase. Investors need to decide whether to take the risk and wait according to their own risk tolerance.

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