The pie has currently dropped to the lowest level of 26559, which has fallen below 26600. Then we can already confirm that this is a 4h level drop. Because it has fallen below the low of September 19, the daily top pattern has come out. Moreover, Ether directly broke through 1600, which also provided a signal for us to judge the falling structure of the market.

The day before yesterday, we were already eager to prepare to short the 4h level decline. However, yesterday I was a little more conservative and cautious, and I was worried that the market would break through quickly due to the news. In fact, I was overly worried. After the interest rate hike meeting this morning, we can easily find that the Federal Reserve is very hawkish about the overnight interest rates for 2024 and 25. The rate hike dot plot shows the possibility of another rate hike in November this year, followed by a smaller rate cut next year than previously expected. This also shows that interest rates will remain high for a long time in 2024, and then slowly lower interest rates.

As soon as these news came out, we already knew that it was very likely that the market would be difficult to break through 28,000. The external market did not provide it with upward momentum. If there was no momentum, it would naturally vent its anger. Therefore, after the interest rate hike ended last night and during the time when Lao Bao spoke, it was an opportunity to short.

In any case, we are currently looking at a 4h level decline. This decline needs to focus on the vicinity of 25,300. If it falls below, there is a high probability that it will continue to extend the first daily decline starting from 31,800. If it continues to extend, it is likely to reach around 22,000, and this probability is still high. Not small. Therefore, we should be cautious when going long at the moment. At least we should wait until the 4h level decline ends before considering going long, which will stabilize the situation a lot.