The traditional market, which this time pulled down crypto assets, has mixed sentiments. There is less optimism than in the crypto market. The traditional market's Fear and Greed Index is 21 ("extreme fear"), while the similar index for BTC is already at 29 (simply "fear"), having rebounded by 12 points in a day.
What specific sentiments and assessments reign on the stock market and what should the crypto market expect from it?
On the one hand, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, the stock market has not yet reached the bottom and the correction may continue.
At the same time, the head of Goldman Sachs assumes that the Fed will not sharply reduce rates, although one or two reductions in the fall are possible. Stifel Research advises waiting for the S&P 500 index to fall to 5,000 (currently 5,325) before buying shares.
On the other hand, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida said rates would not be raised while markets were unstable.
The announcement weakened the yen and boosted Japanese stocks. Japan, incidentally, likely sold U.S. Treasuries to support the yen.
According to Bloomberg estimates, the biggest sell-off in Japanese stocks in decades has come to an end. On Tuesday, the NIKKEI index formed a harami candlestick, which may indicate a reversal in the trend. And given the short-term nature of the Japanese crisis (the reasons were described yesterday), there are reasons for optimism, despite the opinion of Goldman Sachs and Stifel Research.
In short, the stock market is still unstable, valuations are mixed, and investors should be prepared for further fluctuations. Although the soft stance of the Bank of Japan may create favorable conditions for at least short-term investments, at least for a rebound. And a possible more aggressive reduction in the Fed rate may change the investment strategies of players and strengthen the growth effect.
The key question is whether the crypto market can start growing against the background of stock market correction? After all, cryptocurrencies are more volatile and risky. And capital, in a period of instability, should leave there first.
But the growth of the crypto market against the fall of the S&P 500 is quite possible. And it has happened more than once. All that is needed for this now is for even a small part of the stock market players (given the scale of the two markets, this is enough) to transfer their money to the crypto market based on the principle of capital flow. When, having earned on a less risky instrument, you transfer part of the income to more risky ones that have not yet shown significant growth. Having fixed on the highs of the S&P 500, players can turn their attention to the cryptocurrency market. Fortunately, there are already enough instruments for institutional investors for this - from crypto-ETF to Multi-asset (diversified altcoin portfolios, which have been receiving inflows for seven weeks, according to #Coinshares).
ps: by the way, in the meantime, the second FUD topic of the crypto market, Iran's attack on Israel, is hanging in the air. Al-Arabiya TV channel, citing sources in American intelligence, reports that Iran and Hezbollah have decided to postpone the attack on Israel until Thursday-Friday. It is unclear what kind of attack it might be. But the Americans are confident that it will happen. Considering that the media initially announced the attack for Monday, the situation already looks comical. Although, of course, there is nothing funny about military actions.