Super plunge + super rebound! How to operate safely now
After the extreme market conditions of the Black Swan, BTC and the market have experienced an oversold rebound. The best performance here is the second Yang. From the perspective of the K-line, the price has risen to the half-point of the long Yin line. From the perspective of the moving average, the price has rebounded to the 5-day moving average of the daily line. The rebound will not continue. I think the rebound will end today and tomorrow, and another decline is expected.
If it can return to below 51,000 again, we need to cover the spot. Now the market is volatile, and the spot can also be used as a short-term level operation. After the first oversold rebound, the decline will form a new shock range.
Confusing market conditions
1. On emergency rate cuts: The Fed’s “megaphone”: The threshold for emergency rate cuts is very high, and the Fed will debate whether to cut rates by 50 basis points in September
2. Regarding the situation in the Middle East: The White House said in the early morning that it does not believe that Iran or Hezbollah’s response to Israel has begun
3. About the US recession: The GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 2.9%, which was previously expected to be 2.5%. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon: The recent stock market adjustment may be healthy. The Federal Reserve will abandon the emergency rate cut and does not expect a recession in the United States.
4. On the Japanese economy: Shinichi Uchida, deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, said the Bank of Japan would not raise its policy interest rate if financial markets were unstable.
The above are all hot events that the market has been paying attention to recently. Today, I will briefly summarize them. At present, the crisis or negative news has been basically eliminated. From the market perspective, it will take time to repair.
After the repair, the market will automatically return to the trend before the negative news. That is to say, any sudden positive or negative events will not affect or change the long-term trend of the market. This is crucial.
Market sentiment and investment expectations
In a long-term volatile market, investors are advised to focus on long-term investment goals and not to add too much leverage in the short term to avoid unnecessary losses in short-term market fluctuations. If leveraged investment is chosen, investors may be at an unfavorable time point, so it is recommended to use leverage with caution.
The market has experienced too many negative events, adjustments and repairs: such as Mtgox, the German government's sale of coins, local war conflicts, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, etc. After many negative events, the market still withstood the risks and the bottom signal was briefly confirmed.
The market is currently repairing and adjusting. The short-term panic selling needs time to repair. After the repair, the market will sprint upward again. There is no doubt about this. The encryption trend has come. It has been repeatedly emphasized that all we can do is stay away from leverage and frantically buy low-priced chips and wait for the rise.
According to the inertial thinking of short-term investors, the price will fall if it rises to 70,000, and will rise again if it falls to 50,000.
But after five months of volatility, institutional funds have had enough time to exchange chips. There will also be unstable events such as geopolitical conflicts and interest rate cuts in the future. There may be a series of emergencies in exchange for you to discard your precious BTC chips.
The first thing you need to maintain is your own patience and not be defeated by flying stones.
