原文標題：Arthur Hayes talks election and Bitcoin：「Trump or Harris, it doesn’t matter」
Original article by Trista Kelley, DL News
Original compilation: Ismay, BlockBeats
Editor's note: Arthur Hayes deeply discussed the current situation and future direction of the cryptocurrency field, analyzed the impact that Trump (Donald Trump) and his policy tendencies may have on the cryptocurrency field, and emphasized how different political leadership affects the future development of cryptocurrency. He also talked about the impact of large financial institutions such as BlackRock entering the crypto market. He believed that whether the cryptocurrency market can still maintain its original intention and avoid tilting towards the centralization of the traditional financial system has become a question worthy of attention. In addition, Hayes expressed extremely high expectations for the future trend of Bitcoin prices, believing that dramatic changes in the global monetary system will greatly increase the value of Bitcoin.
Arthur Hayes' first job was on the trading floor of Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. The day he started working in September 2008, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy. He was 22 years old at the time.
Those days of adrenaline-filled deals and million-dollar prizes came to an abrupt end.
Risk-loving young traders like Hayes were swept away by regulatory and compliance departments and a stifling office culture.
Then he discovered cryptocurrency.
“When I read the Bitcoin white paper, it really struck a chord in me about real philosophies — like the corrupt banking system and how bullshit it is,” he told DL News.
Fast forward a decade — a journey that included co-founding the BitMEX cryptocurrency trading platform and reaching billionaire status, as well as a guilty plea and probation in the United States — and the crypto industry is starting to look more and more like the bank he left. Industry.
Financial giants including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton now offer retail investors low-cost, safe ways to invest in cryptocurrencies.
Fidelity Investments Wants to Include Bitcoin in U.S. Pension Plans.
Hayes said this is still an old industry.
"It still maintains a really diverse community of people from all over the world, either from finance or technology. They want different things," Hayes said last week from his office in Singapore.
"What they want is something with unlimited upside, obviously super volatile, and if you're not diligent enough, you'll be eliminated very quickly. But at least the ability to generate extreme product usage or extreme wealth."
Hayes has credibility as a cryptocurrency veteran.
He has also become one of the most prolific and widely followed market commentators on cryptocurrencies and beyond.
Hayes chatted with DL News ahead of Monday's market crash to talk about the election, the financial industry's embrace of cryptocurrencies, and his thoughts on Bitcoin's price.
About the election:
AH (Arthur Hayes): They think Trump is saying the right thing, so he's going to make it happen faster. Whether it’s Trump or Kamala Harris, it doesn’t matter.
DLN (DL News): Why?
AH: Yes, cryptocurrencies donate a lot of money. But I don’t think your giving has reached the level of companies like JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Goldman Sachs.
And if you think about who works in these institutions, it's the people who come from these banks.
So, while it would be great if Trump was elected and he did all of these things, I think he'd probably run into the same problems he had in his first term.
You can say all these nice things and try all these policies, but if the entire government apparatus is against them, nothing will get done.
On Bitcoin and Monetary Policy:
AH: Either the Trump administration or the Harris administration is going to print money. Their methods are different, but money is still printed.
So your cryptocurrency prices are going to go up - that path can be very winding, but at the end of the day, we know where it's going to go.
About SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
DLN: SEC Chairman Gary Gensler seems to be a big bogeyman in the industry. Do these sentiments resonate with you?
AH: People confuse symptoms with problems. You can listen to his lectures, he is a very smart man. But when he's in government office, he's a complete fool.
This is just politics. You can replace him with someone else. Gary Gensler is not the problem, and neither is the SEC.
Firing Gary Gensler changes nothing if a set of regulations you were originally unhappy with remain in place because your elected representatives chose to think about other things instead of creating a framework for cryptocurrencies.
People make a fuss about Gary Gensler, but he doesn't really matter.
About the Bitcoin Reserve Program
AH: Even if Trump were elected, I almost don’t think it would be possible.
You need a certain number of people to vote for this plan if it's going to have a negative impact in some way on the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve System or maintaining visibility in the U.S. fiscal markets.
DLN: Even if this project doesn't work, do you think it's a good idea?
AH: Oh, that's a good idea. The US should weaken the dollar at the end of the day and buy Bitcoin and gold which will solve a lot of their problems.
They will weaken the dollar and the value of Bitcoin and gold will rise.
Do I think the US government will actively try to acquire Bitcoin?
I doubt it, they will buy gold first before buying Bitcoin.
But it's the same deal, and it's the same motivation for doing it.
About BlackRock’s move into cryptocurrency
AH: The whole point of cryptocurrency is that there are no barriers to entry.
An institution like BlackRock should be able to use Bitcoin, and people without financial services in the Philippines should also be able to use cryptocurrencies.
Is the incentive structure strong enough? Is the game theory and all that stuff behind how blockchain works enough to ensure that centralization doesn't happen - and if it does, are there consequences?
I wrote something along the lines of, like, they're going to take all the Bitcoins and ossify the network, that sort of thing, right?
In theory, yes, this could happen, but it's still an open competitive market.
If you own a BlackRock product, you own a cryptocurrency derivative and do not own the cryptocurrency—BlackRock owns your cryptocurrency.
So BlackRock's product is a sexy product for people because it's simple, but it's also not a cryptocurrency.
About the price of Bitcoin
AH: The price of Bitcoin is going to be very, very high during this cycle. It could be as much as hundreds of thousands of dollars, or even $1 million.
There is so much debt that needs to be converted that we are entering a period of complete change in the global monetary system.
We don’t know what it will be like, but the people who have benefited most over the past 80 years will be very resistant to change.
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This article is reprinted with permission from BlockBeats
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