After yesterday's Black Monday, some were happy and some were worried. Yesterday will also become a day in the name of the people in the currency circle, referred to as the "805 Black Swan". The market is currently in an upward correction state. As for where it can correct to, we need to pay more attention. Secondly, we also need to pay more attention to the transfer of Bitcoin by the US government last night. As for whether to sell it, we need to pay close attention.
Judging from the current market trend, the market will be in the 54000-57000 range in the short term, and Ethereum will be in the 2400-2600 range. As for Sol, it is relatively strong and will be in the 130-143 range in the short term.
The most common reason for the crash is that the Japanese yen raised interest rates, the US dollar lowered interest rates, carry rates disappeared, and risk assets were sold off in large quantities, leading to circuit breakers in many countries' stock markets. The increase in non-farm unemployment rate triggered the Sahm rule, and the lingering geopolitical crisis. Mr. Buffett also sold half of his Apple holdings and was waiting for a collapse with cash in his hands.
This really is the perfect storm in terms of emotions, with all the macro events fueling panic.
Is the market overreacting? Today it seems that the market is overreacting. The Japanese and Korean stock markets have rebounded sharply, and the governments have indicated that they have sufficient policy capacity and will take measures in the event of excessive market volatility.
Even when the market started hyping up recession concerns last week, I wasn't too worried. It's just a trading recession, not a real recession.
The monthly employment report was affected by temporary layoffs and hurricanes, and the agency expects the unemployment rate to return to 4.1% next month.
At the same time, the creator of the Sahm rule also said that the indicator is only heading towards recession, but the United States has not yet entered recession.
The ISM non-manufacturing PMI released yesterday also seems to indicate that the US service industry is still growing, and the service industry accounts for 70% of GDP. So at present, I still maintain my judgment that the US economy will not be too good this year, but it will not be too bad either.
What will affect the U.S. stock market in the future will still depend more on the U.S. fundamentals. Currently, three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies have released financial reports, with an overall profit of 11.5%, the highest since Q4 of 2021.
Therefore, a market crash caused by excessive panic is a rare opportunity to buy at the bottom. I also bought some of my favorite US stocks last night.
The U.S. stock market is supported by performance, and the cryptocurrency market has had no good news but only bad news recently, and may have to survive until September.
The support position of BTC and ETH is still as mentioned yesterday, and it depends on whether it can be maintained after the second retracement. If the trend from March to August this year is regarded as a rectangle, then the worst case scenario that can be seen at present is that it cannot be maintained near 5w and goes to 4w5 again. There is no worse situation for the time being, unless the Fed does nothing and a liquidity crisis occurs again.
There are also bullets for bottom-fishing in batches. Buying at the lowest point is a probability. Be prepared for 1-2 months of volatility. A drop to 40,000 is possible, and a rise to 100,000 is inevitable.
I think the most worthy comparison is 619, not 312
1. Both experienced a pullback after a big rise. In 2021, the pullback was from April to June, and this time it was from March to August, and it has experienced 5 months of adjustment.
2. They all pull back to the long-term trend line of the daily line and then adjust sideways. The sideways adjustment also requires a positive line to shock the bears and give confidence to the bulls to achieve balance.
3. The possibility of a direct V-return is small. Cash is king for Buffett. We need to observe and wait for a while, so we should keep some cash in hand.
A few questions you need to know before you buy:
1. Rebound target: BTC will increase by at least 30% to above 64,000, and ETH will return to above 3,000. It will be at least a weekly rebound, and there is a certain probability that it will set a new historical high and start a new weekly main upward wave.
Is 2.49000 the bottom? Even if it is not the bottom, it is not far from the bottom. The bigger the market, the more solid the bottom is. It is possible to test it for the second or third time, or even slightly set a new low. If you bought the spot at the bottom yesterday, hold it safely and have a better situation.
The market always moves forward in a cycle of ups and downs. There is no market that will always rise, and there is no market that will always fall. If there is a continuous decline without any rebound, then crypto will end directly, which is obviously extremely unlikely.
We are still confident about the market outlook. The key moment of the US election has not yet arrived, and the economic recession is still in the expected stage. The actual situation remains to be seen. In terms of time, the current adjustment has been close to 4 months, exceeding the adjustment period in May 2021. If the bulls are still there, now is likely to be the bottom area. Even if the bear market script is followed, it will usually bottom out in 6-7 months, and it is likely to rebound in October or November at the latest.
In a period full of uncertainty, it is particularly important to remain calm and rational. Now, all we need to do is to remain patient. The market will eventually find its balance, and investors who wait for opportunities will often get rich returns in the future.
