OVERVIEW OF WHY THE FINANCIAL MARKET IS FEARFUL IN THE LAST 3 DAYS
🖥 Macro situation
🔹 Impact from S&P500 and Nasdaq: Investors fear the Fed will cut interest rates late and recession will begin.
🔹 BoJ rate hike: Yen appreciation causes yen carry trade to be margin called and have to recover assets. Yen carry trade is a short-term trend due to the interest rate/exchange rate differential, while recession concerns are longer-term.
✅ Geopolitical tensions
🔹 Escalation between Iran and Israel: Tensions in the Middle East are increasing.
🔹 US presidential election: Trump's winning rate drops from 75% to 55%.
🕯 Jump Trading Sells ETH
🔹 Jump Trading Activity: Withdraw 120k wstETH (worth about $500 million) and convert to ETH, send to exchange to sell and collect stablecoin. Jump started taking action from 24/7 and sent ETH to Binance continuously in recent days.
🔵 ETF Cash Flow
🔹 BTC Spot ETF: Net -$237m.
🔹 ETH ETF: Net -$54m.
🔹 Grayscale ETHE: Grayscale's ETHE fund no longer has a discount after net selling of $2.2 billion to the market.
🕯 Supply Shock
🔹 German Government: Continuously sold $BTC 💎 (50k BTC).
🔹 US Government: Still holding 203k BTC.
🔹 Mt.Gox: Completed BTC & BCH repayment to over 70% of creditors. Currently holding only 46k BTC compared to the original 142k.
