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Weekly Review
This week, from July 29 to August 4, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $70,079 and the lowest was close to $59,850, with a fluctuation range of about 14%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 63,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.31 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.35 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 42,000-47,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
At the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the eighth consecutive time.
Powell said: There was indeed an in-depth discussion on interest rate cuts at this meeting; the time to lower interest rates is gradually approaching, and the consensus of the Federal Reserve is gradually approaching a rate cut;
If inflation falls in line with expectations and the labor market remains stable, a rate action in September is likely to occur.
In the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement, the long-standing "high attention to inflation risks" was deleted and changed to "The Federal Reserve is concerned about the risks posed by its dual real names." Inflation concerns are disappearing from the spotlight.
Data released by the U.S. on Wednesday showed that the number of U.S. small non-farm ADP jobs increased by 122,000 in July, 150,000 lower than the previous value and 150,000 lower than the expected value, the smallest increase since January 2024. U.S. ADP data and labor cost indicators show a slowdown in the job market, consolidating expectations for a rate cut in September.
In a report, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius raised the probability of the United States falling into recession in the next year from 15% to 25%.
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in September, November and December. In addition, Goldman Sachs said that if its forecast is wrong and the August employment report is as weak as July, then a 50 basis point rate cut in September is very likely.
Encrypted ecological news
MtGox stated in a statement that following the repayments on July 5, 16 and 24, 2024, on July 31, the trustee repaid some creditors in the form of BTC and BCH through some designated crypto trading platforms in accordance with the compensation plan. So far, it has completed the repayment of funds to more than 17,000 creditors.
Previously, MtGox mentioned in court documents and related reports during its bankruptcy that approximately 24,000 creditors submitted claims and the repayment completion rate was roughly estimated to be 70.83%.
A draft BTC reserve plan proposed by U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis shows that part of the funds for purchasing BTC will be achieved by revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold.
According to the draft, the plan would purchase up to 200,000 BTC per year for five years, for a total of 1 million BTC, which would be held for at least 20 years and used solely to repay federal debt.
Analyst MaxBecauseBTC said that the Bollinger Bands on the BTC weekly time frame have only been so tight twice in history, in April 2016 and August 2023.
It is rumored that Jump Crypto market makers collapsed and began to liquidate.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Whale Position Status
Total spot selling pressure
US purchasing power
A group of giant whales that have never moved
(The following figure shows the status of whale positions)
Judging from the group of whales, there is an overall intention to buy, and there have been no particularly large changes.
And during the decline, we have been maintaining the buying stage.
(Figure below: Total spot selling pressure)
Judging from the total selling pressure of the spot market, the overall pressure has not increased accordingly, that is to say, this round of selling is not mainly for profit.
It wasn't premeditated.
(The picture below shows the purchasing power of the US market)
The purchasing power of the U.S. market has begun to decline and weaken recently, and the market has begun to slide. If we want to wait for the right side, the purchasing power of the U.S. market may need to fall back to a positive direction.
(The picture below shows a group of giant whales that have never moved)
This special group of inactive whales also showed a buying trend overall;
Their decisiveness in the market is very important, which means that there is no very obvious sell-off in the major groups.
The reasons for the larger sell-off may be the liquidation of local institutions, market sentiment and the influence of foreign markets.
The overall market is still buying and taking in.
Mid-term exploration
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Short-term participants spend output profit margin
Price structure analysis model
WTR risk observation indicator 1
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The online sentiment has dropped to a large extent, and it may take some time for the overall sentiment to recover.
(The figure below shows the profit rate of short-term participants’ expenditure output)
This data has been calculated, and when the value reaches 1.2, which means it tends to sell at a profit, a left top prompt may appear in the market.
When the value reaches 0.88, it may be inclined to squeeze the loss sentiment, and the left bottom prompt will appear in the market.
It is currently at the bottom range on the left, so it may be necessary to estimate the price again.
(The figure below shows the price structure analysis model)
According to the price analysis model, 56,000 is the fundamental lower limit calculated by short-term cost.
If it falls below the lower price limit, the bottom area of the fundamentals may be formed. A similar structure can be referred to the rapid decline caused by the May 19 incident in 2021.
If we simulate the fundamental situation at that time, and if the price does not recover rapidly when it hits the bottom of the fundamentals,
Then the market may correct for nearly 1-2 weeks or more.
At the same time, if we calculate the short-term loss of -25% floating loss, around 50,000 may be an important support or pressure level.
(WTR Risk Observation Indicator 1 in the figure below)
Judging from the current situation, ETH still has a high spot risk.
This data is mainly used to observe the immediate decline in the market. If it is to truly stabilize, we need to pay attention to the decline in data.
At present, it may be better to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is near the green area, and the derivatives risk is low.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
This week, the derivatives risk factors of ETH and BTC are both close to the green zone. Last week was expected to be more volatile, and the market subsequently retreated. The current on-site derivatives market is more affected by the external environment.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options trading volume rose slightly, and the put option ratio was low.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at medium to high levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
There has been a massive drop in implied volatility.
Emotional state rating: Negative and bearish
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
As mentioned last week, positive market sentiment (blue line) has not continued to increase, and now with the pullback, market panic (orange line) has continued to increase.
The current market sentiment is negative and bearish. Although the amount of loss transfer has not increased further, it still needs to be observed.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC inflows accumulate, ETH inflows are small.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Although there is a small outflow of BTC at present, the large amount of chips that previously flowed into the exchange have not yet been fully digested.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in a state of small inflows.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: There is a moderate loss of global purchasing power, and a large loss of stablecoin purchasing power.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Purchasing power in the Americas as a whole was in a state of loss this week, and purchasing power performance was relatively negative.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions are in a state of large outflows.
Off-chain transaction data rating: 45,000 people have the intention to buy,
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 39,000 to 48,000;
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 45,000;
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 45,000 and 48,000;
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
In the short term, the selling by the US government, the German government, Grayscale, and Mentougou have almost been completed.
From a medium to long-term perspective, negative factors will not always exist, and market sentiment will gradually become desensitized. There will be two years of interest rate cuts in the future, and the United States still has more than 6 trillion US dollars of money funds waiting to be released. The possibility of a deep recession in the United States is also very small. From these perspectives, there is no possibility of too much major negative factors.
So after the twists and turns, the narrative cycle will continue.
On-chain long-term insights:
Generally, whales are still accumulating funds, and there is no obvious selling behavior;
The total spot selling pressure has not increased, and it is not a long-planned profit-taking;
The purchasing power of the US market has declined. The purchasing situation in America is currently poor, and the right side may have to wait until it returns to a positive value;
The group of whales that have not moved are still buying, and they play one of the most important and decisive roles in the market.
Market setting:
There has not been any particularly notable selling among the major groups, and they are still hoarding.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The online sentiment is not very positive and it may take some time to sort it out;
The left bottom prompt currently appears;
According to short-term cost calculations, 50,000 may be an important support or resistance level;
Perhaps ETH’s spot risk needs to be released and alleviated.
Market setting:
Wind control
The current market enthusiasm is poor, and we need to prevent the occurrence of worse situations, but there are also signs of the left bottom;
From the perspective of deduction, the bottoming process will be more difficult, and it is better to participate cautiously.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is near the green area and the risk of derivatives is low.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: negative and bearish.
The overall BTC inflow into the exchange's net position is accumulating, with a small inflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power is being lost in moderation, and stablecoin purchasing power is being lost in large amounts.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 45,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 42,000-47,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
The overall market sentiment is negative and bearish, and purchasing power is lost overall. Whether the market will continue to fluctuate and fall further still needs to be observed in the external environment, but the probability of a direct sharp drop is low.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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