Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Monday the Fed will respond to signs of economic weakness and said current interest rates may be too tight.
Asked whether weakness in the job market and manufacturing would prompt a response from the Fed, Goolsbee did not commit to a specific course of action but said it did not make sense to maintain a "restrictive" policy stance if the economy was weakening.
“The job of the Federal Reserve is very simple and straightforward, which is to maximize employment, stabilize prices and preserve financial stability. That’s what we do,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
The interview came at a time of global market turmoil. On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1,070 points, the S&P 500 falling 4.2%, and the Nasdaq falling 6%.
Wall Street's fears were stoked last Friday by weak nonfarm payrolls data, which showed nonfarm payrolls increased by just 114,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, triggering a signal known as Sam's rule that suggests the economy could be in recession.
However, Goolsbee said he doesn't think that's the case.
“The jobs data was weaker than expected, but it doesn’t look like a recession yet,” he said, adding: “I do think we should be forward-looking in making decisions about where the economy is headed.”
Goolsbee stressed that the monthly employment data has a margin of error of 100,000, so it is important not to jump to conclusions.
Asked about the emergency rate cut that markets are calling for, Goolsbee said options, including rate hikes and rate cuts, are always on the table and that if the economy deteriorates, the Fed will take steps to fix it.
Goolsbee also acknowledged that the Fed's current policy is restrictive, a stance that should only be taken when the economy looks overheated. Since July 2023, the Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate between 5.25% and 5.5%, the highest level in about 23 years.
“Should we make the policy rate less restrictive? I’m not going to tie our options because we’re still going to get more information. But if the economy is not overheating, we shouldn’t be materially tightening or restrictive,” he said.
Policymakers have been focused on the "real" federal funds rate, which is the federal funds rate minus the inflation rate. Unless the Fed chooses to cut rates, real rates will rise when inflation falls, limiting economic growth.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to enter an aggressive monetary easing cycle, with a 100% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, another 50 basis point cut in November, and a considerable chance of another 50 basis point cut in December.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
