Behind the Japanese stock market circuit breaker! US non-farm data is sluggish, and the Asian stock market crash is coming
Today, the plunge in the Japanese stock market has attracted widespread attention. The Nikkei 225 Index and the Topix Index have been falling since opening. The Nikkei Index once plunged by more than 7%, falling by more than 2,500 points.
This phenomenon not only makes investors panic, but also makes people begin to explore the deep reasons behind it.
What we need to understand is that the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike policy is one of the main reasons for the current stock market crash.
Prior to this, the Bank of Japan decided at its monetary policy meeting that ended on July 31 to raise the policy interest rate from 0% to 0.1% to around 0.25%.
This is the first rate hike since the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy in March this year.
The meeting also decided to gradually reduce the central bank's government bond purchases from the current 6 trillion yen per month (1 US dollar is approximately 152.7 yen) to around 3 trillion yen per month from January to March 2026.
This policy adjustment stimulated the sensitive nerves of many international investors. Investors sold risky assets one after another, and the Japanese yen exchange rate rose sharply.
At the same time, the US non-farm payrolls data for July was far below expectations, triggering investors' panic about an economic recession.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the same day showed that the number of new jobs in the U.S. non-agricultural sector in July this year was only 114,000, and the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021.
The relevant data triggered the economic recession indicator "Sam's Rule", which defines that when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is more than 0.5 percentage points higher than the low point of the past 12 months, it means that the economy has entered the early stages of recession.
Affected by this, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively.
This series of events not only had a huge impact on the Japanese stock market, but also had an impact on other Asian stock markets.
The relative strength of the A-share market has become a temporary "safe haven" for market funds. The offshore RMB rose by more than 400 basis points against the U.S. dollar, reaching a high of 7.1251, the highest since January.
How should the Japanese government and investors respond to this situation? First and foremost, they need to have calm judgment and decisive action.
For the government, it is necessary to pay attention to the policy dynamics of the government and the changes in macroeconomic indicators, because these are the key factors that affect the market trend.
For investors, they should have sufficient risk awareness, not blindly follow the trend, and make reasonable asset allocation based on their investment goals and risk tolerance.
Both the government and investors need clear minds and firm determination to move forward steadily in this financial storm.
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