The market performance in early August was unexpected, but the real market test will come in the second half of the month.
Despite the release of positive non-agricultural data, the market did not strengthen, but fell sharply. This shows that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been digested by the market and is no longer a driving force for the rise. Bitcoin fell below the key mark of 60,000 and is currently supported in the 52,500 area.
This decline is not limited to cryptocurrencies, and global stock markets have also seen a significant correction. The Japanese stock market continued to fall after slightly exceeding the historical high, the German stock market broke through the recent head, and the British and French stock markets formed a small double top and then fell sharply. In terms of US stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average performed the weakest, with two weekly top divergences, and the S&P and Nasdaq fell sharply to near the monthly rising trend line.
The impact of the interest rate cut is not enough to ease market concerns, and the risk of a recession in the United States has increased. The Wall Street panic index VIX soared 50%, breaking through the one-year bottom. Intel and Amazon's financial reports were lower than expected, and Google and Tesla's quarterly financial reports were also disappointing.
At present, despite the continuous negative news and the gradual cooling of market sentiment, signs of a renewed strength in the market have begun to emerge. This bottom can be copied. At present, the market is unlikely to fall sharply at one time, and it may fluctuate in a range. This may be the "golden pit" before the interest rate cut, paving the way for the future bull market.
Short-term:
Bitcoin 53600-53300, target around 55000
Ether 2320-2290, target around 2460
Medium- and long-term:
Bitcoin 53600-53300, target around 60000
Ether 2320-2290, target around 3000
