Why is it that when the market expects an imminent rate cut, the U.S. stock market has collapsed, causing the cryptocurrency market to be very sluggish?
The current market game is between recession rate cuts and defensive rate cuts. As for the short-term recession expectations, I personally think that next Monday will be the highlight. The ISM non-manufacturing index and S&P Global's service industry index will be released next Monday. After all, the service industry accounts for 60% to 70% of the US GDP. If the service industry weakens, the recession expectations will be further strengthened.
The good news: The US resident government has a low leverage ratio and a healthy balance sheet, which is highly resilient. Large technology stocks actually have no major performance problems, and their fundamentals are still good, but they just need to lower their valuations.
The bad side: The most hurt are the lower-class people, whose savings have been almost consumed, wage growth has slowed down, and prices are definitely rising. So they are under the greatest pressure (as reflected in the sharp increase in credit card default rates). This is also the sector with the most problems in the second quarter's financial reports, the optional consumption sector led by McDonald's, and the poor man's meal package is very popular.
As for a recession, I think we’ll have to wait until Q1 or Q2 of next year to consider it.
The mathematical principle of taking over is that only when larger funds and players enter the market to take over, can the market continue to rise. If a market falls to the point where small shrimps have to be taken over by large institutions, then what follows can only be a terrible decline and harvest.
Why can BTC continue to rise through cycles? It is because speculators take over from the early veterans, companies take over from speculators, ETFs take over from companies, and later sovereign countries will take over from everyone...
Don’t be foolish enough to believe the nonsense that “the U.S. stock market will collapse if the Fed cuts interest rates”. This is simply confusing cause and effect and confusing right and wrong. It is obvious that the U.S. stock market is on the verge of collapse, and the Fed has no choice but to cut interest rates and release money to save the market.
The burning desire of the US stock market and the secretive Federal Reserve are like a boy and a girl who are more than friends but less than lovers, shyly testing each other, and no one dares to take that step. It was the US stock market that took the first step and broke the window paper. Once it was broken, the Federal Reserve would no longer have to hide. The two young and white bodies rolled together.
Graham said: The core of value investing is research. The core of research is to obtain the maximum return under the premise of ensuring the safety of the principal. I personally believe that the core of value investing is: good target + good price + good timing!
Because the "value" of different projects is different, making value investments in junk projects and playing fast on valuable projects are the two main reasons for not making money or losing a lot of money. " Putting the cart before the horse and misallocating funds are the biggest taboos in investment. If the strategy is wrong, no matter how smart the tactics are, it will be useless.
Ten years of sharpening a sword, a sword breaks the sky, value investment does not ask about the source and does not care about the rise and fall, Acala
