The unemployment rate of 4.3%, announced at 8:30 pm, exceeded expectations and the previous value, and was the highest since October 2021. The U.S. economy went into recession without leaving any room for hesitation. Powell will have a headache next.
The release of this data directly triggered Sam's rule, that is, the current unemployment rate has indicated that there may be an economic recession. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in July, which was released at the same time as the unemployment rate, recorded 114,000, far below expectations and the previous value, adding another heavy blow to the US economy on the basis of the unemployment rate, which is why the US stock market opened sharply in the evening.
Friends in the cryptocurrency circle may not understand why the rising unemployment rate and the decline in non-agricultural data, which promote interest rate cuts and are obviously beneficial to venture capital, cannot lead to a rebound in the crypto market? I have explained the relationship between interest rate cuts and risk market rebounds in several articles. In the macro sense, interest rate cuts will indeed drive the continued rise of venture capital, but there is an objective premise here, that is, the action of interest rate cuts is a defensive behavior before the economic recession.
Before March 12, the continuous circuit breakers of the U.S. stock market led to a series of capital collapses. The Federal Reserve directly cut interest rates by 100 basis points at that time, which was a typical passive interest rate cut. Capital could not bear it! The external macroeconomic environment is obviously not as terrible as it was in 2020, and the Sam rule is not 100% valid. As long as the subsequent unemployment rate data does not soar at such a large increase, the possibility of a soft landing of the U.S. economy still exists, and this is something the U.S. government will definitely try its best to regulate.
After the data came out, traders immediately increased their bets on annual rate cuts, which are now expected to be 111 basis points. Among them, the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has increased from less than 10% to 90%, and the probability of three annual rate cuts has increased rapidly again. All the panic at this stage will disappear when the rate cut is implemented. Try to live until that moment.
Yesterday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 50.64 million U.S. dollars, and Grayscale mini BTC had a net inflow of 190 million U.S. dollars. As the world's first top capital to enter the crypto market, Grayscale has a great influence. Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of 26.7 million U.S. dollars. Grayscale continued to reduce the selling of ETHE, and it will take only a few days to reach the final balance of inflows and outflows.
There is a very obvious sense of manipulation in the crypto market. The double kill of long and short positions after the data came out last night and this morning and evening was simply too bloody. From the operational perspective, I can only suggest that spot players hold on for the next month and a half. The pain period is only a few days. The market has never been friendly to contract players, especially recently. The technical side is against the trend, the data side is against human nature, and leverage has become the fuel of the market.
If we do not consider the preventive measures that the Federal Reserve may take in the near future to prevent economic recession, and do not consider the negative environment of risk assets’ short-term linkage collapse caused by the soaring unemployment rate, in the next two years, Europe has taken the first step of interest rate cuts, and the Bank of England also took the first step of interest rate cuts in four years yesterday. There is no suspense about the Federal Reserve in September. In the next two years, interest rate cuts will become the main theme of the world, and the market liquidity expansion will also embark on a journey after the extreme panic.
BTC: The support range of 63,000 points of Bitcoin has been explored again, and the short-term market has entered a relatively high-quality price-performance range. With the arrival of data that exceeds expectations, the macro bearish trend still exists, and there is a possibility of a short-term rapid downward exploration. However, objectively speaking, even if the market may continue to decline, it is unnecessary to be bearish on the short-term operation. The monthly line of Bitcoin has a trend of reaching a new high, but the short-term daily line focuses on the position of yesterday's low of 62,280 points. If the downward rebound cannot be effectively recovered, the short-term violent downward breakthrough of 60,000 points will become a reality, and the market will enter an ultra-short-term extreme panic state. The bull reversal is based on the daily line breaking through 66,500 points. The bearish sentiment focuses on whether it can pull back above 63,000 points tomorrow morning. If it pulls back, the bearish sentiment will be appropriately alleviated, and we can wait for structural adjustments.
ETH: The half opportunity below 3000 points of Ethereum has come today. The market is linked to the weak fluctuation of Bitcoin. The trend is bearish but not short. The data has improved, and we are waiting for the macro environment to improve.
Shanzhai: Overall linkage, the callbacks that have been concerned about before should have reached the entry point. There is a risk of continuing to go down. It is also a long-term process to build a bottom on the right side. It will be difficult in the short term. Just hold on. At this stage, the position allocation is heavy on ETFs. For the rest of the Shanzhai that needs to be replenished, focus on the top of each sector, and leave the rest to time.
The Fear and Greed Index is 57 during the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #美联储何时降息？ #比特币大会 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC
