Although A-shares fell today, it is still quite resilient compared to the general decline in the global market.
Japan -5.8% today, Taiwan -4.4%, South Korea -4%. These stock markets have performed very strongly in the past year, but they all suffered heavy losses today.
In terms of operating logic, most of them follow the lead of U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq fell 2.4% last night, and things are not looking good tonight either. It is currently down 2% in pre-market trading.
Tonight, the United States released non-farm employment data, which was a big collapse. The expectation was 175,000, but the actual number was only 114,000. Gold jumped 1% instantly, and the US dollar index fell nearly 1%. Judging from the current capital market bets, a US dollar interest rate cut in September is almost a foregone conclusion, with a probability of nearly 95%.
I have warned about this situation before. Logically speaking, the US dollar interest rate cut and loose liquidity are good for the capital market. However, this time the US dollar interest rate cut was delayed for too long, the capital market was in a state of preemption, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has already been built into the stock market. Now that the good news has been realized, we have to be careful about funds dumping the market and rushing out.
Now the certainty of interest rate cuts is getting higher and higher, and the correction of US stocks is becoming more and more obvious. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news is a famous saying on Wall Street, and it is not uncommon.
Here I want to complain that the term "sell on the news" has changed its meaning when it comes to A-shares. The news on the US stock market is all public information, and the content and time of exposure to institutions and retail investors are similar. On our side, due to various insider leaks, the news we sell is the first public information. It seems the same, but it is actually very different.
This wave of U.S. stocks is a weekly level correction. So far, the Nasdaq has retreated nearly 10% from its highest point, which is neither too little nor too much. This profit-taking based on the realization of positive news looks more like a technical correction rather than a strategic reversal.
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Today, a friend introduced me to a prediction and betting website, where orders are placed using USDC on the Polygon chain. Of course, a law-abiding citizen like me will not participate in gambling, but it is quite interesting to look at the data inside.
For example, predicting the next US presidential candidate, Trump 55%, Harris 44%, Obama's wife 1%. I looked at the curve, Harris was only 6% in the middle of the month, if you bought her at that time, you can make 7 times the profit by selling in advance now. The betting page also has the support distribution of the Donkey and the Elephant. The red ones are all for Trump, and the light ones are all swing states.
There are also various strange predictions, such as whether Biden will complete his term, 77% think he will. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is 95% in September and November, and even the extent of the rate cut in September is believed by 45% of the funds to be 50 basis points.
The Olympics are currently underway, and there are related predictions. For example, among the countries with the most gold medals, 23% of the funds bet on China, but among the countries with the most medals, 99% bet on the United States.
For men's basketball, 84% bet on the United States, and 7% bet on Canada; for men's football, 34% bet on France, 27% bet on Spain, and 12% bet on Argentina; in the men's 100 meters, Lyles and Thompson are both 40%; in men's tennis, Alcaraz leads with 74%, while Djokovic has only 19%; however, in women's tennis, my country's Zheng Qinwen has 69% bets and is strongly favored.
It's a pity that we can't see the betting situation of the men's 100m swimming. I guess the foreigners are losing money.
In terms of predicting the highest-grossing movie this year, Inside Out 2 received 85% of the bets. In terms of predicting the next 007 actor, Superman Cavill only received 8%, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson ranked first with 18%. Who is this person and why I have no idea.
The most popular bet in the tech sector is whether 2024 will be the hottest year on record? 42% yes; when will gpt5 be released? 9% in the third quarter, 41% in the fourth quarter, and 50% next year.
It's quite interesting. After looking at the scale of TVL, there are hundreds of millions of dollars actively betting there. Unlike traditional gambling websites, unfinished predictions can also be traded instantly.
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Finally, let me explain the family finance issues that netizens asked a lot in the past few days. Many female readers used my content to pua their husbands, saying that Mr. Mao gave the money to his wife to manage, and our family should learn from him.
I think this should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. My wife is a Taurus. She is usually very careful and rarely makes mistakes. In addition, she stopped working very early and has more time at home, so I let her handle all the family fund management. In fact, I set the specific direction of investment, such as which bond funds to buy and how much, which private equity funds to buy and how much, which trusts to buy and how much, opening overseas bank accounts, opening overseas brokerage accounts, the directions are very scattered. After I set the goals and proportions, she contacted the other party to execute them. It is more convenient to buy in her name, which saves me a lot of time and energy.
I never ask about the expenses within 50,000 yuan, but she will ask me to make the decision if the expenses are above 50,000 yuan. I think this division of labor is reasonable. As for my personal account, I don’t have much pocket money. I probably only have 10,000 to 20,000 yuan for daily use, which is enough because I rarely go out and don’t spend much at home.
Therefore, not every family has to give all the money to the wife, because the investment structure of most working-class families is relatively simple. They either deposit all the money in the bank, or squeeze out the money to buy a house, or invest in stocks and funds. It is not necessary to give all the money to one person to manage.
Some wives want to have full control over the family's finances, thinking that this will give them more control over their husbands. Not every man is willing to be constrained. Don't create conflicts over this and make the family a mess. It's unnecessary.
