The U.S. unemployment rate in July was 4.3%, expected to be 4.10%, and the previous value was 4.10%, the highest since October 2021. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in July recorded 114,000, the smallest increase since April 2024. The July data raised the average unemployment rate over the past three months to 4.13%. The rise in unemployment triggered the Sam's Rule recession indicator, which believes that a recession begins once the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate exceeds the lowest value in the previous 12 months by at least half a percentage point.