August 2, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The market trend is consistent with the direction of the article I wrote yesterday. The price of Bitcoin has further dropped to 62,000, which is a few points away from the first support I mentioned. At present, this price is still acceptable. If you sell at a high level, such as selling above 68,000, you can buy it back first. A 10-point swing above Bitcoin is already very good. As for the next direction, the short-term trend has actually stopped falling, but if it fails to rebound, it will fall further. We are no longer bearish for the time being.
This wave of decline has brought the price of Shanzhai to a low level again, which is equivalent to the price of Bitcoin at 55,000 points (the second support point). It can only mean that the current fund activity in the circle is very poor. In this case, I do not recommend too much participation in short-term trading, especially for Shanzhai. Don't open a position at one time. My own strategy is to open positions in batches according to different price supports. For example, when Bitcoin is around 60,000, I will open two positions, one for long-term and one for short-term. After the short-term rebound, I will sell it and continue to wait for opportunities. The same goes for the next 55,000.
In fact, looking at the historical K-line and market conditions, the best opportunity to intervene in the cottage is during the sideways period of more than one month, especially when the market sentiment is almost cold to the freezing point, and slowly build positions when the trading volume is very low, but this will not happen in the current cycle before the big bull market next year. Therefore, we must adopt another strategy, which is to build positions in batches at different support levels. Objectively speaking, the risk of this strategy is greater because the overall trend is still downward, but if you don’t do this, you may miss the market, so you must take some risks.
In the short-term market, the probability of further decline is not high. I judge that there will be a rebound at this position, so continue to buy back the positions sold before. If there is a rebound, then do another wave. After all, the overall downward trend has not yet clearly ended. Be prepared for both situations. In fact, in the long run, the low price of Ethereum will be lower than the current price, but the window period is also very short, so there is no need to worry about being trapped in the spot. As for the risk of copycats, it may be greater. The overall allocation ratio should not be too high. Just keep the cost as low as possible in the wide range of volatile markets.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
