Prospects of interest rate cuts and market strategies: historical mirrors and future speculations
Powell sent a clear signal last night: "September interest rate cuts may become an issue." The market generally expects this to be a positive, and looks forward to the return of the bull market in the fourth quarter. However, historical data tells a different picture-before each interest rate cut, the economy was shrouded in gloom, and the stock market often suffered setbacks first, such as the Internet bubble in 2002, the financial crisis in 2008, and the impact of COVID-19 in 2019, all of which confirmed that interest rate cuts are emergency measures under economic difficulties.
This time is different. The interest rate cut is to prevent trouble before it happens, aiming to curb the potential deterioration of the market. If there is no black swan attack before September, the interest rate cut may rewrite the historical script and lead a new chapter in the market.
Goldman Sachs think tank Scott Rubner warned of the August stock market storm. The current market at the end of July has shown signs of fatigue, and the storm is about to come. The lag effect cannot be ignored. The flow of funds is not an immediate achievement. Just like a million-dollar investment in opening a store, the income needs time to accumulate, not overnight.
In summary, although the expectation of interest rate cuts exists, the market trend is complex and changeable, and historical lessons are intertwined with the current environment. Investors should consider carefully and respond flexibly. The above insights are for reference only, and decisions should be made at your own discretion.
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