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Today's Picks
Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, Powell opens the door to a September rate cut
The "small non-farm" recorded the smallest increase since January 2024, and the cooling of the US labor cost index exceeded expectations
Hamas leader killed in attack in Iran's capital, US media: Iranian leader orders direct attack on Israel to avoid harming civilians
Bank of Japan unexpectedly raises rates by 15 basis points, cuts bond purchases
Japan's Ministry of Finance: Japan spent $36.6 billion on foreign exchange intervention in July
President Xi Jinping: We must do a good job in national air traffic management and promote the healthy development of the low-altitude economy
State Council: Plan to increase the urbanization rate of permanent population to nearly 70%
Several brokerage firms announced that they will adjust the annual interest rate of RMB current deposits in customer margin accounts to 0.15% from August 1, 2024.
Market Review
On Wednesday, as Powell opened the door to a rate cut in September, the market almost fully priced in the Fed's rate cut in September. The US dollar index fell slightly, but remained above the 104 mark, and finally closed down 0.41% at 104.05. The US dollar hit a four-month low against the Japanese yen, falling below the 150 mark; US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield falling nearly 4% to close at 4.0350%, and the two-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.266%.
Spot gold continued its upward trend, rising by more than 1% again and approaching the $2,450 mark, but failed to reach it and finally closed up 1.53% at $2,447.75 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 2.17% at $28.99 per ounce.
As the leader of Hamas was killed in an attack, foreign media reported that the Iranian leader ordered an attack on Israel in retaliation, and crude oil rebounded sharply. WTI crude oil continued to rise during the day, with an increase of more than 4%, breaking through $78, and finally closed up 4.28% at $78.04 per barrel; Brent crude oil returned to above the $80 mark, and finally closed up 3.82% at $81.43 per barrel.
Thanks to the "small non-agricultural" data and Powell's endorsement of the interest rate cut in September, US stocks closed up collectively on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.24%, the S&P 500 up 1.58%, and the Nasdaq up 2.63%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 12.8%, TSMC (TSM.N) rose 7%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 4%. After the financial report was released, Meta Platforms (META.O) US stocks rose more than 7% after the market, Arm (ARM.O) US stocks fell more than 10% after the market, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.78%, Li Auto (LI.O) rose 5%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 1%.
Major European stock indices were mixed, with Germany's DAX30 index closing up 0.53%; Britain's FTSE 100 index closing up 1.13%; and Europe's STOXX 50 index closing up 0.66%.
The Hang Seng Index opened higher in the morning and continued to rise in the afternoon. The increase once expanded to nearly 400 points, reaching a high of 17,400.24 points, stabilizing above the 10-day moving average. Most of the technology stocks performed well, driving the technology index to outperform the market, and once rose by more than 3.5%. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index closed up 2.01% at 17,344.60 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 3.01% at 3,516.87 points. The Hang Seng market turnover was HK$118.867 billion (the turnover on the previous trading day was HK$89.213 billion). On the market, most sectors in the market were in the green, with financial sectors such as brokerage stocks and bank stocks leading the market, technology stocks strengthened, and most power stocks fell and performed poorly. In terms of individual stocks, Hongye Futures (03678.HKK) surged 57.98%, HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) rose 4.64% after the results, WuXi AppTec (02359.HK) rose 7.37%, and Huaneng International Power Technology (00902.HK) fell 5.31%.
The three major A-share indexes opened low and ended high, with individual stocks showing a general rise. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.37%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.51%. On the market, the securities sector collectively exploded, with Capital Securities, Huaxin Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Pacific Securities, Jinlong Securities, and Guosheng Financial Holdings hitting their daily limits. The concept of humanoid robots soared, with Tianqi Shares, Boshi Shares, Leisai Intelligent, Mingzhi Electric, and Keli Sensor hitting their daily limits. Diversified finance, tourism, innovative drugs and other sectors led the gains. Public transportation, telecommunications operations and other sectors led the declines.
International News
1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and revised its statement to fit recent calls for rate cuts, but retained the wording of "no rate cuts until there is greater confidence in inflation." Powell said that the meeting had an in-depth discussion on rate cuts, and that if the data meets the requirements, the rate cut will be made as early as September. It also weakened the impact of inflation on decision-making and increased attention to the weakening of the job market. The interest rate futures market has increased its bets on the Fed's rate cuts this year to nearly three times.
2. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 122,000 in July, lower than the expected 150,000, the smallest increase since January 2024. The previous value was revised from 150,000 to 155,000. In addition, the broad indicator of U.S. labor cost growth, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, cooled more than expected in the second quarter, supporting the trend of gradually easing inflationary pressures. The U.S. labor cost index recorded a quarterly rate of 0.9% in the second quarter, after the index recorded its largest increase in a year in early 2024.
3. The situation in the Middle East suddenly escalated. Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack in Tehran, the capital of Iran. The Iranian Foreign Ministry responded that Haniyeh's blood "will never be shed in vain." According to US media reports, Iranian leaders ordered a direct attack on Israel to avoid harming civilians. The EU and the US rushed to send diplomats to the Middle East to try to avoid the expansion of the conflict. Blinken clarified that the United States was not involved in the killing of Haniyeh.
4. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.25%, while reducing the scale of bond purchases. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda pointed out that the weakness of the yen was one of the factors that influenced the Bank of Japan's decision, and also opened the door to tightening policy.
5. Japanese Ministry of Finance: Japan spent US$36.6 billion on foreign exchange intervention in July, an amount roughly in line with previous estimates based on Bank of Japan account data and currency broker forecasts, showing the Japanese authorities' determination to crack down on foreign exchange speculation.
6. According to a statement released on Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department plans to "moderately increase" the issuance of short-term Treasury bills next week and maintain the scale unchanged until the end of August.
7. The Swiss Stock Exchange suspended stock trading for several hours due to a technical failure.
8. Morgan Stanley included Nvidia in its "preferred stocks" list, and the latter closed up nearly 13%, with a record single-day increase of US$329 billion in market value.
9. Crowd Strike faces a class action lawsuit from investors due to system failures and sell-off issues.
10. TikTok purchased OpenAI's model through Microsoft at a price of approximately $20 million per month.
Domestic News
1. President Xi Jinping stressed the need to do a good job in national air traffic management and promote the healthy development of the low-altitude economy.
2. The State Council issued the "Five-Year Action Plan for Deeply Implementing the People-oriented New Urbanization Strategy", which plans to increase the urbanization rate of the permanent population to nearly 70%.
3. State Council Executive Meeting: We must optimize and strengthen macroeconomic policies and increase macroeconomic regulation efforts. We must not only implement and accelerate progress based on the implementation of the policies that have been issued, but also study and introduce a number of incremental policy measures to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence.
4. The Ministry of Finance allocated 2.037 billion yuan of central fiscal funds for agricultural production disaster prevention and relief to support Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu and other places in implementing the "one spray and multiple promotions" policy for autumn grain crops.
5. The Ministry of Commerce and three other departments issued an announcement on optimizing and adjusting drone export control measures: canceling temporary controls on specific consumer-grade drones.
6. The United States will further prevent Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands from exporting semiconductors and manufacturing equipment to China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: Containment and suppression cannot stop China's development.
7. The new version of the Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment is expected to be launched as soon as possible, and manufacturing will continue to be the key direction for encouraging foreign investment.
8. Shanghai issued implementation opinions on further leveraging the role of the capital market to promote the high-quality development of the city’s science and technology enterprises.
9. Several securities firms announced that from August 1, 2024, the annual interest rate of RMB demand deposits in customers' margin accounts will be adjusted to 0.15%.
10. Zhengzhou officially announced the cancellation of the new home price limit order.
11. Since the start of the summer travel season, from July 1 to 30, the national railway has carried a total of 409 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with an average of 13.65 million passengers per day and an average of 10,639 passenger trains running per day.
Risk Warning
☆Today, OPEC+ will hold a ministerial group meeting to review its oil production policy. The market is still divided on whether the alliance will increase production in the next quarter as planned;
☆At 9:45, China will release the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July;
☆At 15:00, France will announce the final value of the manufacturing PMI for July;
☆At 15:55, Germany will announce the final value of July manufacturing PMI;
☆At 16:00, the Eurozone will announce the final value of the manufacturing PMI for July;
☆At 16:30, the UK will release the July manufacturing PMI;
☆At 17:00, the Eurozone will announce the unemployment rate for June;
☆At 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. UK interest rate futures show that the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates this week is 60%; at 19:30, Bank of England Governor Bailey will hold a press conference;
☆At 19:30, the United States will announce the number of layoffs of challenger companies in July;
☆At 20:30, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 27;
☆At 21:45, the United States will announce the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July;
☆At 22:00, the United States will release the July ISM manufacturing PMI;
☆At 22:00, the United States will announce the monthly rate of construction spending in June;
☆At 22:30, the United States will release EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending July 26;
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
