In the early morning, the Yingge Station opened with a 10-minute countdown, and the market became active in advance.
Pay attention to several points
[Looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision—focus on changes in the statement]
1. Interest rate changes: The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive time, and there is a small probability that it will lower interest rates for the first time.
2. Job market: The first paragraph of the statement may add the statement "the unemployment rate has increased recently", and the description "employment growth remains strong and the unemployment rate remains at a low level" will not change.
3. Inflation situation: The description of the progress in reducing inflation in the first paragraph of the statement may be changed from "moderate further progress" to "significant progress" or similar expressions; the market is still unsure whether the Fed will still use "high" to describe the inflation situation. There is considerable controversy.
4. Dual mandate: The description of the dual mandate in the second paragraph of the statement may become more balanced, from "risks to employment and inflation targets have become better balanced" to "have been better balanced."
5. Interest rate cut signal: The sentence in the third paragraph of the statement "It is not appropriate to lower the interest rate target range until we are more confident that inflation will continue to move towards 2%" may be changed to a more positive expression, such as "Once we are more confident that inflation will continue to move towards 2% If we are more confident, we can lower the interest rate target range.”
6. Voting ratio: Chicago Fed President Goolsby may become the first official to vote against the Fed's decision in more than two years, and the market expects him to support an interest rate cut at this meeting.
7. Powell’s speech: He may deliver a speech similar to congressional testimony, further suggesting that the Fed will start its first rate cut in September; it will evaluate recent inflation data candidly but cautiously, and avoid making any promises while acknowledging the progress in reducing inflation.
The content is excerpted from Jin Shi. I think the analysis is very interesting!
