The market may start an upward trend in the next month. Considering that the time overlaps with the bull market, this upward trend is likely to be a bull market.
But please note that the market trend is a continuous process, not a one-step process.
The market has met the "fall long enough, fall too much"
The source of an upward trend is a sufficient decline. In simple terms, the market is a decline, and after the bottom is formed, it starts to rise. In terms of the decline, BTC has fallen from a high of 73,000 to a low of 53,000, and the decline has reached 27.4%. After 21 years, due to the market's consistent bull market expectations, the decline of BTC adjustment will not be as large as before. For example, in the second half of 23 years, BTC only fell by 21%. In terms of time, from March to July, the adjustment time reached 4 months. Although it is shorter than before, it basically meets the requirement of sufficient time for decline.
Technical indicators show bottom signals
First, at the 53,000 position in July, the RSI showed a daily oversold bottom divergence. The RSI oversold divergence has become the bottom of the daily level many times in history, with a very high accuracy rate. After the fall of the ma120 daily line, the market also quickly stood on the ma120 daily line. The RSI and Ma120 daily lines are relatively effective indicators sorted out from various indicators.
The market is currently strong
In March, ETF funds drove the market up all the way, and there were a lot of good news in the market, and the overall bull market was expected to come. However, the market stagnated at 70,000, and the altcoins peaked one after another.
In July, the German government sold BTC, Mt. Gox paid compensation, and the US government moved BTC. These were not only negative news, but also real selling pressure. After several months of weak market conditions, many people are now bearish on BTC. As for the actual trend of BTC, the German government has sold all its BTC, and Mt. Gox has paid more than half of its compensation. However, the BTC price is still around 67,000.
In summary, the market is bearish, there is bad news, and there is huge selling pressure, but BTC is still strong. So it is substantially strong.
Uncertainty of trends
This time the uptrend is less certain than the last time, because there are several uncertain factors affecting the market:
1. The bottom did not oscillate for a long time.
2. Mentougou still has more than 80,000 BTC distributed, and the US government's BTC also shows signs of movement.
3. The U.S. stock market is at a high level and it is uncertain whether there will be adjustments.
In terms of operation, we will operate according to the highest probability, that is, according to the market that is about to start. I personally recommend holding 50%~60%, and increase the remaining BTC position when it breaks through the previous high of 73,000. In case the market moves in a low-probability situation, you can increase your position during the second plunge.
Because the biggest profit in the future will come from the copycat market after the main uptrend of BTC!
How to ambush in the current market and what to do with the trapped coins?
Some people think that this round of bull market only belongs to meme coins and has nothing to do with ordinary investors. In fact, the growth of other tracks such as RWA, DePIN, AI, BTCFI, ETFi, etc. is not inferior to meme. The reason why you missed the opportunity is that you lack the courage to sell your meat for good coins. Once you take the first step, your bull market journey will really begin. The market has stabilized at present, which is a good opportunity for layout.
Judging from the current market performance, all sectors have experienced a round of gains. Hurry up and make arrangements. Don’t miss the opportunities in the second half of the year. Many people have suffered heavy losses in the cryptocurrency circle.
From today on, you should put past losses behind you and start your investment journey again with a new mindset. If your assets have shrunk from 100,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan, don't always think about getting your money back, as this mentality may distort your investment decisions. Instead, you should regard yourself as a new starting point with only 10,000 yuan, start from scratch, and plan your investment path steadily. Remember, successful investment requires not only strategy and patience, but also the right mindset and a fear of risk.
In particular, the meme and AI sectors have performed well, and the storage sector has also performed well recently, but the rise of animal-related currencies has been particularly rapid. According to historical data, a mid-term investment of one quarter can basically generate steady profits, while long-term investments of more than half a year are more secure.
In fact, as long as you don’t frequently operate short-term investments, you can basically make a profit under the general trend. The market generally does not believe that it has entered a bear market, because Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet formed a bear market pattern.
Judging from the daily chart of Bitcoin, the market situation is not bad. However, for altcoins, this round of bull market will not rise across the board like in the past. The new bull market will be more structured, with the strong getting stronger and the weak finding it difficult to turn over. Therefore, don't cling to junk coins that have lost their value. These coins are in a passive state in every market fluctuation, that is, they fall more and rise less. Every extreme market is a good opportunity for you to switch positions to the leading assets in the value track.
