Next, we need to pay close attention to the following key signals and data points:
Expectations for the July meeting: Foreign media economist Anna Wong and others believe that the July meeting may only give a preliminary indication of a possible rate cut in September, and Chairman Powell may mention that if the data meets expectations, he may consider a rate cut.
Key data releases this week:
Wednesday: Release of July ADP employment, mainly reflecting private sector employment. Thursday morning: The Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions and determine the direction of monetary policy.
Thursday evening: Announcement of weekly initial jobless claims.
Friday: Disclosure of July unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data.
Expectations for the interest rate meeting: In the interest rate meeting from July 31 to August 1, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates, and pay attention to the content of Chairman Powell's speech.
If economic data slows down or the job market is weak, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate cut.
Market expectations: If the interest rate meeting at the end of the month and Powell's speech convey that the market expects a rate cut in September, it may form a positive expectation for the Bitcoin market in August.
On the contrary, if it conveys a signal that there will be no rate cut in September, it may cause the market to continue to fluctuate widely, similar to the market trend in the previous few months.
Therefore, combined with important data and events such as CPI data, rate cut expectations, and the timing of the US election, we will closely observe whether the market will show signs of reversal, which will be the focus of attention.
