September Fed dot plot analysis and compilation:
1. Royal Bank of Canada: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, 25 basis points each time, and a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points, which is higher than the 25 basis points shown in the previous dot plot median expectation.
2. Danske Bank: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, 25 basis points each time, 6 interest rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points each time, and no interest rate cuts in 2026, with a final interest rate of 3.00-3.25%.
3. Barclays Bank: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, 75 basis points cumulatively, and 125 basis points in 2025, which reflects the decline in inflation forecasts for this year and next and the sharp increase in unemployment forecasts this year.
4. Nordic Bank: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, each of 25 basis points, a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points, and another 100 basis points cut next year, a total interest rate cut of 175 basis points.
5. Bank of Montreal: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, a 125 basis point cut next year, and the long-term or "neutral" level may be raised. Some participants will expect a rate cut of at least 100 basis points this year.
6. Gregory Daco, EY economist: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, each of 25 basis points, a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points, and an expected interest rate cut of 100 basis points in 2025.
