The group often discusses the topic of the four-year bull and bear cycle.
Some people believe that the 4-year cycle will be broken, and the reason is: "Everyone knows that there is a 4-year bull-bear cycle, so there will not be a 4-year bull-bear cycle, because it is impossible for everyone to make money."
Some people believe that the 4-year cycle will not be broken, and the reason is: "Even if the market tells you clearly, most people still don't make money. Many people still don't make money from the $16,000 rise to now."
Personally, I tend to believe that the 4-year bull-bear cycle is not easy to break.
The top shape may be different. 2021 is a double-headed bull, but 2025 is not. However, the time period should be quite small. For details, please refer to "There are three major uncertainties in this bull market".
Why is the view that a bull-bear cycle lasts for four years still reliable?
What are the factors that will dominate the next four-year bull-bear cycle?
Last year, Bitcoin bottomed out at $16,000 in the bear market and recovered to $30,000. Since there was still a year before the Bitcoin halving, the window period was too long, resulting in a half-year hiatus in the overall market trend.
It was not until October 2023 that the hype surrounding the Bitcoin spot ETF caused the market to rise again, and together with the expectation of a Bitcoin production cut in April, it reached its peak of $73,000 on March 14.
There is also a window period between March and the end of the year when the United States cuts interest rates.
This caused the bull market trend to be "interrupted for several months" again.
Now that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to cutting interest rates, the window period is shrinking, and it is only a matter of time before the market returns to its high point and breaks through the previous high.
Myth System's view on future trends:
Once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the trend of rate cuts may continue until the end of 2025, close to the 4-year cycle time node.
Since the interest rate cuts were carried out in multiple stages, with a cut every few months, it was not easy to be interrupted in the middle, making it easier to rise parabolically. Until the end of the interest rate cuts, assets remained at a high level.
The 4-year bull-bear cycle is not easy to break.
But the four-year bull-bear cycle will not be extended.
Because after a bull market, there must be a bear market. After a big bubble, there must be a big crash. The post-bull market trend will not last long without a gap.
①The asset bubble is too high.
②After a wave of interest rate cuts, there will often be a wave of interest rate hikes.
③After the interest rate cuts, the next Bitcoin production reduction will be in 2028, and there will be a three-year "window period".
There will inevitably be a long "gap" in the middle.
Enough to break into a long downward spiral (bear market).
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