July 26, 2024 Grandpa checks in
After further short-term decline, the market rebounded, with Bitcoin falling below the support level of 65,000 to 63,500, and Ethereum just falling below 3,100. I also said yesterday that the market will fall further, but although the direction was right, I have to admit that the low point is higher than I expected. I think Ethereum will at least fall below 3,000. There are two main logics. The first is that Ethereum's spot ETF is not as good as expected, and it is expected that Grayscale will throw billions of dollars of chips into the market. The second point is that the currency of Mentougou has begun to pay compensation, and I have seen that many people have received compensation.
Of course, regarding the selling pressure in Mentougou, I have said before that the substantial damage to the market may be optimistic. After all, they are all supporters 10 years ago. Even if they are not financially free, they at least have enough faith in Bitcoin. Getting the currency is just icing on the cake for them. They may not be in a hurry to sell it. In fact, this wave of market can be successfully maintained, mainly due to the resilience of Bitcoin. As for this short-term rapid rebound, in my opinion, it is mainly due to the Bitcoin Global Conference. Due to the participation of many well-known politicians, this conference is highly anticipated and has attracted widespread attention.
This conference invited 10 American political guests, 8 of whom are Republicans. Support for cryptocurrency is the current consensus of the Republican Party and one of Trump's measures to win votes. According to the meeting arrangement, Trump will make a relevant speech on the 28th. According to Trump's usual style, there will definitely be more surprising remarks, which will then turn into short-term benefits. It is estimated that this is also the reason for the short-term rebound of the market. As for what promises Trump will make to cryptocurrency, this is also the focus of my concern. After all, the probability of his election as the next president is very high.
As for the market, the positive expectations of the Bitcoin Conference in recent days have offset the potential selling pressure of Grayscale to a certain extent, and Grayscale's selling pressure is only theoretical, because whether these Ethereum profit accounts have sold a large number of shares is just a guess. However, objectively speaking, I think this wave of retracement is not enough. The failure to reach the low point in the short term does not mean that a rebound will be formed next. On the contrary, if the market rises due to positive news, we can continue to reduce our positions.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
