What?! Trump is in trouble! Harris overtook him in terms of winning rate. Is there no “crypto president”? It’s hard to predict the outcome of this election!
Ethereum ETF first day data is out, how did it perform? Why did the price of the coin plummet? It turns out that there is a big problem here!
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is coming in 7 days. Will the cryptocurrency market plummet? Now, what potential coins are worth investing in? Let's follow Shuqin to find out.
The first is the much-anticipated Ethereum ETF trading volume, which reached 1 billion. This is almost 20% of the 4.6 billion first-day trading volume of the Bitcoin ETF, which is quite in line with expectations.
So the question is, why didn’t Ethereum skyrocket because of this?
This is because Grayscale is making trouble again. The Ethereum fund that it had not been able to cash out for seven years was finally converted into an ETF yesterday. As a result, investors who had been waiting for seven years began to sell their funds one after another. This is exactly the same as the selling pressure of Grayscale when the Bitcoin ETF was first listed.
So Wall Street was buying and Grayscale was selling, and the two offset each other, greatly reducing short-term net inflows, and even causing net outflows on the second day.
However, if you look at the situation of the Bitcoin ETF at the time, after a few weeks of weakness, it will gradually begin to gain momentum.
Currently, the support for Ethereum is above 3100 and 3000. There are many large investors placing orders. If it can hold out through the selling pressure in the first two weeks, there will be a bright future ahead!
In addition, the market has indeed been unstable recently, because the 3 billion US dollars of Bitcoin that Mentougou transferred to Kraken finally began to be distributed to users last night.
In addition, the positive news of the Bitcoin Conference and Ethereum ETF this week has been exhausted, so the market may pull back for a while. We have warned of this several times when the Mentougou sell-off occurred several days ago.
Therefore, contract holders should be extra careful now, especially for coins like People and Maga which are most affected by politics. They must take profits at highs before and after the Bitcoin conference and switch to other hot coins, such as Floki and WIF.
After all, the people who bought at the bottom have doubled their money, so I think it’s okay.
However, there is one thing that Shuqin is very worried about. According to the latest data from Reuters, Trump's approval rating has been overtaken by the new candidate Harris by 2%, making the election results confusing again.
Because Biden was old, many people were reluctant to vote for him. As a result, he did not run, and the new Harris did not have those weaknesses, so her support rate was still quite high. Therefore, it is hard to predict the outcome of this election.
In addition, Musk also went back on his word and removed his laser eye avatar, which disappointed many meme coin holders, especially Dogecoin players. It has become unknown whether he can attend the Bitcoin conference tonight, but I think he will most likely go.
However, Lao Ma has actually been secretly calling out to the cryptocurrency circle. Yesterday, he even posted a picture of the depreciation of the US dollar, meaning that everyone should invest in Bitcoin, which has anti-inflation properties.
And I tell you, he will definitely pull up the market in a bull market, and he will do it very hard, after all, he also wants to make money. For example, in the last bull market, his Tesla company announced that it would buy $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin to rise by nearly 10,000 points on the spot.
Then he said that people can buy Tesla directly with Bitcoin, which led to another double-digit increase in Bitcoin. He basically chooses to pull up the price in the middle of the Bitcoin bull market, so everyone can look forward to it at the end of this year. This time, there should be calls from Wall Street giants such as BlackRock. Shuqin is still very optimistic.
Now let’s talk about the current market. Although there are many negative factors in the short term, the overall funds in the cryptocurrency circle are still increasing. Please see the picture.
The figure shows that the circulation of USDT, the hot money in the cryptocurrency circle, has reached a new high of 115 billion, while the price of Bitcoin is lower than a few months ago. This is a divergence. If you compare it with the previous cycle, when Bitcoin was 69,000, the issuance of USDT was only about 80 billion.
Therefore, there is a lot of capital entering the market now, especially the Wall Street ETF has also seen net inflows of funds for three consecutive weeks. Everyone is buying, so why isn’t the price of the currency rising?
Hi, this is all due to the tens of billions of selling pressure from Germany and Mentougou. Now there is another selling pressure from the Grayscale Ethereum ETF. Otherwise, the cryptocurrency market would have broken through the previous high and started to take off.
However, these negative factors are actually good news for those who have not yet gotten on the train, because they give you a second chance to get on the train at a low price. Currently, Sol, Pepe, Floki and WIF are all good choices, especially the WIF 2.37-2.4 upper neckline support that Benqin told you about before, which is a very good opportunity to break through and go long.
And if you saw the Mentougou selling pressure that I posted a few days ago and escaped the top in advance, or followed my short-term operations and left the market at a high level, for example, Pepe ran at 0.127, Sol took profit at 180, and Floki left at 0.207, then you can now happily buy at a low price.
Currently, the support for Bitcoin is around 63,000, while Ethereum has a huge amount of funds waiting to buy above 3,100 and 3,000. These are updated in real time. There are many operation opportunities every day. Those who are interested can come and have a look.
Okay, let’s get back to the topic. Before we know it, another Federal Reserve interest rate meeting will be held in 7 days, which is next Thursday at 2 a.m.
The interest rate outcome of this meeting is not what people are concerned about, because the interest rate market has already priced in no interest rate cuts at this meeting. What people are really concerned about now is the subsequent interest rate cut agenda announced by the Federal Reserve at this meeting. Will there be two or three rate cuts this year? Everyone is trying to figure out something from Powell's attitude, so every time he gives a speech, the entire U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency world will jump up and down.
Will the cryptocurrency market rise or fall by then? As far as I know, the September rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and the Fed has the habit of releasing information in advance, so I expect Powell to find reasons for the September rate cut next week to give the market an expectation of a rate cut, so his attitude will definitely change from hawkish to dovish, which should be a high probability event.
As for whether the interest rate will be cut twice or three times this year, we can look at this through the interest rate market. Currently, Wall Street is pricing in a high probability of three interest rate cuts this year, with a probability of 56.1%. This may be beyond the perception of most retail investors and will be an additional positive.
In other words, Wall Street traders expect that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates once at every interest rate meeting after July to stimulate the economy, so rationally speaking, the cryptocurrency market will actually perform better next year.
However, Bitcoin should start to rise before the election this year, and reach a local high by the end of the year, such as 100,000 US dollars, and then slowly rise to 150,000 or even 200,000 next year. These are all relatively rational expectations. Of course, some small coins will surely rise much more. After all, their market capitalization is small, and any amount of funds can pull them to the sky, so some Dogecoin can also be appropriately allocated.
However, when buying at the bottom, you must not use high leverage, especially for Dogecoin. Try to focus on spot and 2x leverage. Don't let your greed ruin you. Risk control comes first!
