Spot Ethereum ETF trading has been going on for an hour. There are 9 funds available on the market - from Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, Bitwise, 21Shares, BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco Galaxy. And - all together they have already surpassed the $200 million mark.
Let's analyze the first results and forecasts, look at the#ETHchart.
Of note:
1. The initial level of fund assets was $10.255 billion. Most of them consist of ETH. And from ETH, which are in Grayscale funds.
In the first 10 minutes of trading, 54% of the trading volume of#ETHE(#Grayscale Ethereum Fund with 2.5% commissions) were active sell orders. Predictable. And here we can expect long and stable sales pressure. The question is whether, as in the case of Bitcoin ETF, this supply will be covered by the demand of other issuers.
2. In 10 minutes,#GrayscaleETF (#ETHE) reached volume of $70.52 million. From#Blackrock(#ETHA) - $30.03 million in volume. From#Fidelity(#FETH) - $25.38 million in volume. But overall, it looks like sales are absorbing so far.
Technically, we see the picture for#ETHlike this - locally on July 23, the high of wave B was set in the corrective structure of growth since July 5.
In this regard,#ETHis ahead of #BTC. We expect a decline in wave C, which should rewrite the level on July 23, breaking through the volume level of $3,424. We are waiting for a test of the trend trends indicated on the chart, and, probably, a test of the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently $3,380). It will be decided there whether there will be a dump after the start of trading or not.
We are not waiting for a dump, we are waiting for the EMA test of the 50 day TF and growth. Why - they wrote, including because of the situation on the BTC dominance chart.
Forecasts for capital inflows into the instrument:
- #Citi: believe that net inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs could be up to $5.4 billion in the first 6 months after launch. Which amounts to 30%-35% of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the same period. At the same time, Citi analysts in their report believe that this will be a disappointment for investors, as will the lack of staking as part of the product.
-#BloombergETF analyst James Seyffart forecasts inflows of $3-4 billion in the first 6 months, which is 20-25% of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the same period.
-#Bloombergsenior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas forecasts inflows of $5-6 billion in the first year. Following 15 minutes of trading, Balciunas wrote that he considered the launch successful.
- The#Geminicrypto exchange predicts an influx of $5 billion in the first 6 months after launch.
- JPMorgan believes that the demand for spot Ethereum ETFs will be much lower than for spot Bitcoin ETFs. But, let us add, no one takes into account that#ETHcan be deflationary. What is impossible for BTC while mining is in progress. And even if in absolute numbers this does not matter much, it can influence the market purely psychologically and manipulatively.
President of the investment advisory company ETF Store Nate Gerasi believes that the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs will be the second most successful debut in the history of all ETFs (not just crypto). Following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that demand for the instrument in the premarket was much lower than when the Bitcoin ETF launched, but believes that the very fact of activity was a good signal.
