July 23, 2024 Grandpa checks in
Ethereum's spot ETF has been finalized and will be officially launched tonight. Although there is no short-term market fluctuation, for Ethereum, which has been 1CO for 10 years, this is a historical achievement comparable to Bitcoin. The main reason why it has not risen in the short term due to good news is that the news has been hyped and digested in advance. Almost everyone knows that it is only a matter of time before Ethereum's ETF is passed. On the other hand, Grayscale's trust products have 2.63 million ETF holdings, worth 9.2 billion US dollars. According to the law of Bitcoin, about half of the ETF should flow out and be converted into ETFs or cashed out. Therefore, it is difficult to judge whether the market will rise or fall in the next period of time.
It is also worth noting that 42,587 bitcoins were transferred from the Mentougou address, worth $2.85 billion, and the debt repayment of Mentougou is about to come to an end. No one knows who these bitcoins belong to, and no one can calculate how much selling pressure there is on the market, but what is certain is that at some point in the future, old coins will be thrown into the market. On the long side, there is the market's friendly expectations for ZC, and on the airdrop side, there is real selling pressure. If the former cannot attract a large amount of funds to enter the market, the market will fall again.
Judging from the past market, once the price of Bitcoin falls, there is still a rush to buy. The market resilience that I mentioned repeatedly before falling below 55,000 is a direct reflection of the action of funds. In fact, the positive impact of the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF and the potential friendly expectations of ZC have been reflected in the price trend. In this way, the staged rebound of the market will be temporarily stopped, and the long and short double killing market will become more frequent. I think it is impossible to break through the new high for the time being, at least we have to wait for the further action of the currency in Mentougou.
At this position, I have already taken some profits at the pressure point, mainly for some bargain-hunting chips. I still have positions before, but I didn’t sell them at high points anyway, so I just take them as long-term positions. The pressure point of Bitcoin at 65,000 has been broken, but ETH has fallen back to 3,500, which means that the rebound of the cottage market may come to an end. Therefore, it is okay to take profits at the bargain-hunting chips first. In addition, from a general perspective, there has been no overall rise despite all aspects being favorable, and there is a high probability that there will be another downward process, so we should keep some funds in reserve.
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