Still, some people look forward to making the dump first.

We all know that Ethereum is the king of altcoins and has largely moved in sync with other altcoins.

When we look at the history of the entire market, 99% of the time:

ETH rises = altcoins rise

ETH down = altcoin down

We saw the impact the ETF had on Bitcoin (it’s trading 50% higher today than it launched), so clearly this is a significant event to say the least.

Still, many are concerned about an initial sell-off before a rally.

Why? It’s because of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

Similar to Bitcoin, they also hold a large amount of ETH.

The problem? They have a massive 2.5% fee.

This is the main reason for the massive capital outflow.

However, there are some key differences this time around that many people overlook and are unaware of:

1️⃣ Grayscale also launched the Ethereum Mini Trust

Difficult explanation:

ETHE (Grayscale Ethereum) will seed the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust by splitting a certain amount of ETHE Ether into ETH, and the shares of ETH will be distributed proportionally to ETHE shareholders.

Simple explanation:

The Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust will be a net positive for existing ETHE shareholders as they will maintain the same exposure to Ethereum and receive the added benefit of lower average fees for both products.

Bitcoin didn’t have this when it launched, and that really makes a big difference.

2️⃣ Bitcoin bounced around for months amid ETF speculation

I personally believe that Grayscale was not the only factor in the initial (minor) sell-off we saw after the BTC ETF went live.

A lot of people “sell the news,” as with any influential event.

They think it’s already priced in (they’re wrong, but they think it is).

Ethereum didn’t! We are suddenly seeing approval, and faster than anyone thought possible.

Basically failed to create a huge upside rally and now needs to cool down and correct before we can continue.

3️⃣ In theory, assume there will be an initial sell-off.

Just like we have seen with Bitcoin, any existing supply or outflow from the market is completely absorbed and dominated by higher demand and inflows.

Bitcoin didn’t sell off for long. It’s still 50% higher.

This is quite remarkable as it had been rallying for several months before rising an additional 50% at the local high.

It basically has almost no top that lasts for days or weeks.

The launch of an ETH ETF will always be a net positive in the medium to long term.

But you're still afraid of falling a few percentage points first?

~

My short and medium term conclusions:

In the long run, this will be a huge win and a net positive.

In the short term, I expect price action to be neutral.

In the first few days, there was no big rise or big fall.

I expect any outflow to be completely absorbed by the inflow.

The standards are different from those of Bitcoin.

I do not foresee a massive initial sell-off until we resume the uptrend ourselves.

Basically: first a neutral sideways movement, then an aggressive uptrend.