My opinion on the interest rate cut in September is that this wave of interest rate cuts will only be 75 basis points in total, with three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each, and there will not necessarily be an interest rate cut next year.

The logic is: I do not think that this interest rate cut is due to concerns about the bad economy, but due to the decline in inflation, which is a mild and defensive interest rate cut.

The US economy is very resilient. With the sharp increase in unemployment in July, the monthly retail sales rate and consumer confidence index in July also performed much better than expected.

But I think that after the interest rate cut, the trend of US stocks in the second half of September and October will still be volatile and in a downward state. Although the economy is not necessarily performing badly.

Because the market needs to leave room for the rise in November and December after the "election"; in addition, the long-term Yield Curve Inversion and the difficulty of repairing the labor market in the short term or even continued weakness will become controversial in the market and become an emotional tool for short sellers.

I think the Fed will look at the reaction of market data and is likely to suspend interest rate cuts after the three tentative interest rate cuts, which are very likely to be 75 basis points in total, this year. In addition to the fact that the economy itself may not decline, this process is also related to the iteration process of AI and the impact of the emergence of GPT-5.

In the next three years, we may see a strange phenomenon: the unemployment rate rises, but the economy is good, the profitability of enterprises increases, investor sentiment is very enthusiastic, and the inflation rate continues to rise despite the increase in unemployment.

In short, we must be prepared for a series of anomalies in the future. It is not impossible to start raising interest rates one year after the interest rate cut (2026). Please adjust the rhythm.