Since the failed assassination attempt on Former U.S. President Donald Trump, confidence in the crypto market has grown, reflecting expectations of a Republican win in November 2024. This is evident in the CME options open interest in expiration and position.
As we approach the Bitcoin Convention in Nashville, where Trump will speak later this month, there is anticipation for pro-crypto regulation policies. Assessing strike prices from September to December, sentiment is building that BTC could reach $80k by year-end.
Options expiry accumulation is growing, with over $64 million in exposure for 3-4 month horizons. Additionally, Biden's reelection campaign ended under Democratic Party pressure, leading him to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's November nominee. It remains uncertain who she will choose as her Vice President or if the Democrats will fully support her as the leading nominee.
This uncertainty within the Democratic Party could lead to assumptions of Republicans winning both the House and Senate, which would likely benefit the crypto market in the medium to long term and favour BTC price deviation up to $95k before the end of the year.
Written by ShivenMoodley
