Since Bitcoin hit a bottom of 53,000 on July 5, the market has undergone a major reversal in half a month, fluctuating upward, and broke 66,000 in the past two days.
At present, even though the increase is considerable, the FOMO sentiment is not serious. The mood of retail investors is very strange, even a little incomprehensible.
The market is rising, but major communities are relatively sluggish, and most Ban Square and contract users are bearish.
Bitcoin and altcoins will experience short-term fluctuations and pullbacks, but all pullbacks will be above 2,000 points.
Moreover, after experiencing the German coin sale, most retail investors have become frightened birds.
Even though we have been instilling in everyone the direction of a volatile upward trend, there will still be bearish sentiment every time there is a drop, and then when it goes up, we will regret not fully investing or taking advantage of the short term.
When it comes to investing, from a short-term perspective, you will always be wrong, and you will definitely be wrong, so Buffett only invests in the long term.
At the beginning of the month, there was a big bottom-fishing. In the past half month, my view on the market is: when Bitcoin falls back to 3-5%, it can be considered as a period of opportunity to cover positions, but the current cover-up is obviously not as large as at the beginning of the month. As long as the market reverses, you can reduce your spot positions and go long on contracts, but try not to go short or liquidate.
Similar to yesterday's drop to 63,000, there were such opportunities a few days ago.
Of course, for those who have already bought the bottom, these operations are unnecessary as they are redundant and are mainly aimed at those who are short.
Time can’t be turned back, and prices can’t be turned back either.
If you can't seize every good opportunity to buy at the bottom, you have to make this kind of compromise of buying at the bottom during small pullbacks instead of being bearish.
Some fans cannot understand the concept on the left and are overly concerned about short-term and short-term fluctuations, and are often washed out in the "German coin selling" at the beginning of the month.
Normal left-side bottom fishing should be done within a cycle where the general direction is correct. After a period of decline, you should take advantage of the bad news to bottom fish in batches. Buy the bottom less when the decline is small and buy the bottom more when the decline is large.
In the past two years, my goal has always been: more than 100,000.
In fact, when investing in any target, there should be only one direction within a cycle, and then consider another direction after the cycle ends.
Once the direction is correct, it is then a matter of position management.
When it was 70,000, people bought less and sold more. When it dropped to 60,000, people bought more. When it was below 5.5, it was even worse.
Looking back at the “Germany selling coins” at the beginning of the month, there was panic, but in fact it was more of manipulation, liquidation, and harvesting.
Judging from the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF this year, there was a large outflow in April and June, which was reversed in early July. The market has been falling during this period. But the inflow of ETF as a whole is definitely greater than the outflow. In the case of selling coins in Germany, there was also less outflow, especially the decline in early July was greater than that in April.
If we only look at the ETF inflows into Bitcoin spot, this is completely irrational.
The reason is that retail investors sold their stocks in panic, but they were all taken over by capital.
From the figure below, BlackRock's inflow situation is more intuitive. Regardless of whether the stock price rises or falls, they rarely have outflows.
In fact, just from the practices of BlackRock, we can strengthen our confidence and optimism.
In less than half a year, Bitcoin reached 100,000, and the market did not support their exit. The specific reasons were analyzed some time ago.
Amid everyone's doubts, the panic of retail investors, and the short-selling sentiment and destruction theories, many are quietly doubling their investments.
In the long run, control your positions and you don’t have to pay attention to market conditions and market sentiment.
In the short term, pay attention to the Ethereum ETF's shocks before and after, which are mainly concentrated on Ethereum and the projects in this series. There is a high probability that they will go to extremes, but no matter which direction, they will first pull out a big positive line.
SOL broke through 170 in the past two days, which was also affected by ETF. This project needs to be viewed in the long term. In the short term, there is huge pressure between 180-190.
The ETF spot will be available on the 23rd. Before the news comes out, the market risk is relatively small. After the news comes out, there is a theory of "correction", but it is not absolute. It may rise and then fall. There is great uncertainty. #以太坊ETF批准预期
