The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only

Lithium carbonate

Trading logic: Salt lake production is in the peak season, and output is expected to increase; power and energy storage both entered the off-season in July, and terminal lithium battery production declined; smelter inventory increased, and shipment pressure became increasingly heavy; the price of imported Australian ore fell, weakening the cost support of lithium carbonate

Risk factors: China's lithium carbonate imports decreased in June and July, and domestic supply will also decrease slightly; some companies have stopped production for maintenance; the lithium battery industry chain may usher in a round of pre-season inventory replenishment in August; the Chilean earthquake has caused supply concerns

Focus events: Changes in downstream demand; the actual impact of subsequent earthquakes on Chilean salt lake production and exports, etc.

Shanghai Gold

Trading logic: The market is currently pricing in a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in September at about 93%; the US election has entered a tense stage, and the economy still seems to have room to fall; a major hawk at the Fed has turned dovish, and many Fed officials have hinted that a rate cut in September is very likely

Risk factors: U.S. retail sales in June were flat month-on-month, higher than expected; the monthly rate of industrial output in June on the manufacturing side was also higher than expected; Trump said he did not want the Fed to cut interest rates before the election

Focus on events: public speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve, the United Kingdom, and the European Central Bank; performance of core PCE next week, etc.

Iron Ore

Trading logic: In the off-season, there is limited room for the recovery of hot metal production; upstream shipments remain at a high level, and port inventories hit a record high for the same period; many steel mills have launched summer blast furnace maintenance plans

Risk factors: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 13,600 tons month-on-month; the iron ore inventory in steel mills was significantly reduced, which may bring about the demand for replenishment in stages; the price of finished products is strongly supported; the expectation of interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased

Focus on events: whether there are any unexpected stimulus policies; steel mill maintenance activities; changes in molten iron production, etc.

European Line

Trading logic: The current quotation of shipping companies has been adjusted back; the possibility of a ceasefire between Palestine and Israel has gradually increased; the global new shipping capacity will be gradually put into use in the second half of the year, and the capacity may exceed demand; October is the off-season for trade, and the freight rate is expected to fall

Risk factors: Spot shipping prices remained high in early July, and some demand still spilled over into August; the latest SCFIS index rose by 10.5%, significantly exceeding market expectations;

Focus on events: the progress of the Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire negotiations; changes in spot freight rates, the speed of new ship launches and the deployment of shipping companies on different routes; the latest adjustment of the SCFIS European route index, etc.

crude

Trading logic: Trump's chances of winning the election have increased, and he may provide greater support to the US oil extraction industry; Israel reiterated that it will fully support the ceasefire agreement; poor refinery profits dragged down refinery operations

Risk factors: U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week; interest rate cuts further strengthened; EIA expects the supply-demand gap to be -830,000 and -610,000 barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters of this year, respectively; OPEC+ production cuts have led to tight global crude oil supply; Russia plans to further cut production to balance OPEC+ quotas

Focus on events: the pace of fulfillment during the peak season of demand in the third quarter; the policy game and emotional impact before the US presidential election in the fourth quarter; the oil production cuts of OPEC+ member countries; changes in US crude oil inventories, etc.

Coking coal

Trading logic: The current demand for thermal coal is lower than expected; steel mills are not active enough in purchasing raw materials; the clearance of Mongolian coal has rebounded and supply is expected to rise; the mandatory conversion of the old and new national standards has weakened the production capacity of steel companies; the market expects that the supply of coking coal may gradually recover after the 18th

Risk factors: Coal mine safety supervision has been strengthened, and some coal mines have temporarily stopped production; many private coal mines in Shanxi have spontaneously stopped production; spot auction sentiment has improved

Focus on events: coal mine suspension and resumption of production; changes in downstream procurement; changes in spot auction prices; changes in market sentiment and policies, etc.

Rapeseed Meal

Trading logic: The open interest of rapeseed meal 09 contract has climbed to a historical high of over 1.3 million lots; the rise of rapeseed CNF and the deterioration of crushing profit provide some support

Risk factors: high carryover inventory and imported rapeseed meal inventory; the subsequent rapeseed arrival volume in July and August is still large; the weather and crop growth in Canada are good

Focus: Weather conditions in major production areas; whether purchasing activities can remain active; issues with positions and delivery, etc.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is compiled from public sources. This article strives to provide accurate and reliable information, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions based on this information.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data