The market is back. The first reason is that the macro expectations for interest rate cuts in September and this year have strengthened. Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States hit the largest increase since early May, and the number of continued claims rose sharply, further proving that the labor market is weakening. In the week ending July 6, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits increased by 20,000 to 1.87 million, the highest level since November 2021. And the market's expectations for a rate cut in September have increased to 93.5%. In addition, Trump's recent assassination and Biden's possible withdrawal from the election have increased the probability of his election success. He has been shouting in support of the encryption industry, which has made encryption practitioners in the United States excited, but it is very likely that the current increase has anticipated some of the pre-November election market in advance.

Ethereum ETF should be ready for listing next week. Grayscale has made sufficient preparations this time. Grayscale's mini Ethereum ETF has the lowest fee, only 0.15%. The purpose is to prevent the huge redemption outflow like GBTC at that time. Mini Ethereum Trust has also been introduced to everyone. After listing, we will know how ETHE performs in a few days. It is possible to go out with one hand and enter with the other, but the amount of funds inflow will definitely not be as much as Bitcoin ETF. 20% is very good.

The transfer of the Mentougou address will still have a great negative impact on the market. Currently, there are still 139,000 coins in the Mentougou address. Half of the registered creditors have received the assets and will certainly continue to repay in the future. Once this mountain is moved away, the negative impact on the surface will be gone, but the negative impact in the dark will definitely still exist.

Binance announced the first project on the HODLer airdrop portal, Banana Gun (BANANA). Users who subscribe to the BNB Simple Earn product between 00:00 on June 23, 2024 (UTC) and 23:59 on July 5, 2024 (UTC) will receive an airdrop allocation. The BANANA HODLer airdrop page is expected to be launched within five hours, and the new tokens will be distributed to users' spot wallets 1 hour before trading begins. Binance will launch BANANA at 09:00 on July 20, 2024 (UTC) and add a seed tag. In other words, as long as you stake BNB for financial management, you can get the corresponding airdrop. It's a launchpad and a megadrop again, and this time there's another HODLer. This BNB is really trying every means to lock in users. At present, only BN can make the money-making effect full of HODLers, but from another perspective, who is selling if everyone is locked in?

Market Interpretation

After accelerating on Monday, the price of Bread directly reached the MA120 moving average, which can be regarded as a key dividing line. It is normal to encounter resistance here. From the fact that it quickly rebounded after being affected by Mentougou on Tuesday, it can be seen that the market is now dominated by bulls, and it is no longer like in June and early July, when the rebound was suppressed. Judging from the spot trading volume, the leading force of this surge should still be contracts. We can see from this contract position chart that it is basically the contract position that pushes the price up, which is different from the previous rises. So it is said that emotions dominate. The possibility of continuing to surge today is relatively small, because once it reaches a new high, a 4H-level top divergence will appear. The first divergence of 4H usually needs to be solved, so today and the weekend should be mainly a pullback or continued sideways fluctuations.

The Erbing ETF will be listed next week. Judging from the current lukewarm fluctuations, the expectations are exhausted, and what remains is to see whether the good news will be realized or delivered.

In terms of cottage:

The sideways movement of Bitcoin actually still provides many opportunities for altcoins. If the second half of the bull market starts in August, I think the thinking can be slightly changed. The VC coins that have been criticized for too long in the early stage, especially the newly listed ones, have now fallen badly. Instead, they may be the new favorites that need to be pulled up by the dog market to cooperate with unlocking. However, this is just a guess, and it may be an opportunity for those who think in reverse.

PEOPLE and FIGHT still performed very well this round. After all, the election boosted the confidence of retail investors. Trump is also inciting the emotions of retail investors.

The price of Bitcoin reached 65,000 in March and April. Even if you don’t know how to read the K-line and don’t understand the technology, if you compare the prices of the copycat coins at that time with those now, you will know which ones are low.

Bitcoin Panic Greed Index: 60 (Neutral) #美联储何时降息？ #币安HODLer空投BANANA #以太坊ETF批准预期 $PEOPLE $BTC