BTC's small-level rebound resistance is in the 64000-64300 range. It has now reached the 64000 point range, but the retracement is not very strong. It depends on whether the retracement strength in the afternoon and evening will fall below yesterday's support position of 63200. After breaking through, the first-line support will be around 62600 on the intraday level. The second-line support will focus on the support position around 61600. The market will not fall to the point all at once. After the decline begins, there will be a big waterfall.
I personally feel that the overall market is very chaotic now. I didn't realize that the overall market is in an upward trend. It is different from October 2023 to February 2024. At that time, the overall rhythm of various sectors was almost the same. In the current situation, it is very necessary to find the rhythm. You can go long or short. If the rhythm is messed up, it is easy to lose money. It is better not to do it. Avoid frequent transactions. There is no need to pursue making orders every day. The more you make, the more mistakes you will make. God does not reward diligent financial people. The more diligent you are in this field, the more you will lose. It is the same as gambling in DC. Sometimes you can win 1 million yuan after passing three levels and leave. If you insist on pursuing 30 games, you may lose everything in the end.
The market is in chaos, specifically:
1. The strong targets in the early stage are now weak, such as TON, KAS and ENS
The main players are all smart money. If BTC is really capable of reaching new highs and making a big reversal, then why don’t these targets reach new highs? Especially TON, with such a hot ecosystem and such active transactions, if it can reach new highs and distribute shipments at a higher position, the main players will make more profits, so why don’t they reach new highs? I don’t have a reasonable answer here.
2. Targets that may have fund accumulation phenomenon.
The 3-day line shows a shake-out behavior, but the rebound is not strong. A large amount of supply will begin to appear when it returns to the vertical supply starting point (the cause of the causal principle is not enough), such as Inscriptions, FIL, and TIA. If it is a stage of accumulation of funds and a shake-out of accumulation of funds, then it should directly reverse in a V-shape and raise the bottom, and it will never be able to return to the bottom of the shake-out. However, the price is now blocked, and it obviously does not want to go back to help the leeks above to get out of the predicament.
3. Pure oversold rebound, bottom explosion, the main force took a wave of chips, DYM, AEVO, this is an oversold rebound. If BTC can reach 100,000 in three months, then why do these targets directly reverse? The start after the accumulation of funds is to pull up in small steps, and it will explode after reaching a certain space.
What do you think about the market in the future? Will the market continue to fall?
Many people say that the negative impact of this wave has basically been exhausted, and we will enjoy the main upward trend for 3-4 months. Personally, I think it will not be so fast, and we must be prepared for the possibility of continued suffering in the next 3 months. At present, the big cake just hits the strong cross pressure level of MA120 and MA144, and it has not stood firm. I estimate that it will continue to consolidate here for a while.
It is not easy to get out of a sharp drop or rise, but the shock and consolidation in the middle is the easiest to wash out the unsteady people. It will constantly hone a person's mind. If you don't get out during a sharp rise, it will give you a heavy blow. Then the consolidation process seems to tell you that there will be a big rise and also seems to tell you that there will be a big fall.
In short, the reason why volatility can easily throw people out is because you are obsessed with short-term predictions, and the short-term rise and fall in volatility is random. You will often make mistakes, and if you make too many mistakes, you will naturally doubt yourself. Give up short-term predictions. As long as the overall system framework configuration is correct, any short-term situation can be allowed to happen naturally. The big bull is still behind. In the next few months of continued consolidation, match the track well, continue to accumulate chips, and there is a high probability that there will be blessings later.
