Yesterday, Trump was attacked during a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, which instantly became the focus. At present, media comments and social trends indicate that this shooting will increase Trump's chances of winning the presidential election. According to Polymarket forecast data, the probability of betting on Trump's victory has reached 70%.
The market generally believes that the Republican tariff, immigration and deficit policies will lead to a stronger dollar, higher bond yields, and provide a more favorable environment for stock assets and cryptocurrencies.
We can refer to forty years ago, when former President Ronald Reagan was shot, the stock market fell and closed early. According to Bloomberg data, the next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 index rose by more than 1%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points to 13.13%.
It is expected that global investors will flock to safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen, gold and Bitcoin in the future, and re-evaluate the trading market related to President Trump's election.
