At 8:30 last night, the United States announced that the seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate at the end of June was 3%, and the core CPI annual rate was 3.3%. Both data were lower than the previous values ​​and market expectations, bringing strong positive news to the macroeconomics. This shows that the inflation trend is no longer fluctuating, but showing an orderly downward trend, which has injected confidence into the market.

After the data was released, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year quickly increased, and the polls that originally expected only one rate cut quickly changed to expecting three rate cuts. This change was directly reflected in the cryptocurrency market, triggering a significant round of highs, showing the market's strong expectations for loose monetary policy.

However, despite the positive data, I think it is unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year. From the expectation of one interest rate cut to the actual implementation of two interest rate cuts, it is already a relatively optimistic result that the market can reasonably expect. This kind of "cost-effectiveness" is already significant enough.

Looking ahead, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has increased significantly to 70%, which will have a profound impact on the market. However, for those investors who have been expecting the cryptocurrency market to fall further below 50,000, they may be disappointed.

At the same time, the data on initial unemployment claims that week showed a slightly negative trend, which formed a certain contrast with the strong performance of the previous employment market, but this was just a small episode in the market and did not change the overall market sentiment.

Fed Chairman Powell also stressed that future interest rate cut decisions will not only depend on whether the inflation rate falls below 2%, but will focus more on the labor market and employment. Judging from the current data, both the improvement in unemployment rate and the easing of inflation have met the basic conditions for the first interest rate cut, providing strong support for future monetary policy adjustments.

The short-term trend of Ethereum and related series is still relatively obvious. It is highly likely that the Ethereum spot ETF will be listed within five working days, so the chips of related series should be raised with 12 points of vigilance. Rumors suggest that Grayscale ETFE may be listed at the same time as other institutions. If this is true, we should be on guard against potential short-term selling pressure in advance.

The off-market sentiment has also been gradually easing recently, and the previous oversold indicators have gradually recovered with the market fluctuations. Even if the data is positive in the short term, it will not directly reverse the market at one time. At this stage, the market still needs to fluctuate back and forth!

BTC
Last night, it hunted for the high point with the positive CPI data and then fell back. Currently, the rising structure of H1 is destroyed. Therefore, pay attention to the price reaction of the rebound of 57600-58000. If it breaks through, it will continue to fluctuate upward. Otherwise, wait for the buying opportunity below 55100-54200.

ETF

The price fell back after hunting 3170 as expected. At present, the rising structure has not been destroyed. Pay attention to the 3070-3020 support when it falls back. If it does not break, it will continue to fluctuate upward. Otherwise, wait for the buying opportunity at 2900-2840 below.

The information and data involved in this content are derived from publicly available materials, and we strive to be accurate and reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice, and you are solely responsible for investing based on it!