The first rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to be in September
1. The economic rhythm of the United States is based on a month, which is not suitable for a rate cut at the end of July.
2. The resilience of the US economy is indeed relatively strong.
3. The first rate cut by the Federal Reserve was postponed from July to September. The United States has basically not increased the extent of economic sacrifice, so the lower limit of the decline in US stocks is basically unchanged - 36,580 points.
4. According to the economic rhythm of the United States in a month, mid-to-late August will be the beginning of the last time the United States will do economic work before the first rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve (an economic cycle based on a month).
5. In mid-to-late August, the supply of US debt will push up the interest rate of US debt, and the interest rate of US debt is likely to approach the high point of 2023 again.
6. In mid-to-late August, the interest rate of US debt will rise, and the United States may do some shameless things again, fanning the flames everywhere. At that time, there may be some turbulence in the South China Sea, but it will not be a big deal.
7. After the end of the Olympics on August 11, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have a small climax and escalate slightly. The short-term climax of the Middle East situation will only occur in July, and the oil price peaked at $86.6 (US oil) in mid-to-early July.
8. A-shares are likely to bottom out at the end of August, and US stocks may bottom out in mid-August.
9. In early September, the United States may have a small explosion, and US stocks may bottom out again.
10. The big positive news between China and the United States may have to wait until October.
11. In the short term, the US unemployment rate will exceed 4.3 and reach 4.4 before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The US unemployment rate was 4.1% in June. According to the trend of the US economy and unemployment rate, it is expected to reach 4.4 in September. Therefore, the Fed's first cut was in September.
