Pay attention to two important events:

1. The Fed's rate cut plan

The Fed plans to start a 25 basis point insurance rate cut in July and further cut interest rates by 75 basis points in the second half of this year, which may be in July, September and December.

2. Fed June meeting minutes and Powell's congressional testimony

June meeting minutes:

The minutes will reveal the Fed officials' views on the economic outlook and monetary policy. The market will pay attention to the Fed's internal discussions on rate cuts and the assessment of economic risks.

Powell's congressional testimony:

Powell will testify semi-annually before the Congressional Financial Services Committee. Monetary policy will not be mentioned in the speech, but he may be asked about his views on the US economy during the question-and-answer session.

Core question:

When to cut interest rates: The market will pay close attention to Powell's remarks and meeting minutes to determine whether the Fed will start cutting interest rates in July as planned. The extent of the rate cut: The market has high expectations for a total rate cut of 75 basis points in the second half of the year, but the specific rate cut and frequency still depend on economic data and the Fed's attitude.

Analysis and Forecast

Short-term market reaction:

Minutes release: If the minutes show that the Fed is more cautious about the economic outlook, it may further strengthen the market's expectations for rate cuts. Powell's testimony: Powell's remarks will be the focus of market attention, especially his remarks on the economic outlook and rate cuts.

Medium- and long-term trends:

Economic data impact: The Fed's decision to cut interest rates will be highly dependent on the performance of economic data in the next few months, especially inflation and employment data. Market expectation adjustment: If the data supports a rate cut, market expectations will stabilize; if the data is lower than expected, the pace of rate cuts may be adjusted.

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