Dividing the market into four stages helps to better understand the cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market:
General bear season: From the peak of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market, the overall market generally fell.
Wash season: From the bottom of the bear market to the start of the next bull market (for example, October 12, 2023), the market is mainly in a state of shock, with a slight upward trend.
BTC/ETH season: From the start of the bull market to the lowest point of the altcoin market capitalization, the overall market rose, but the increase was mainly in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the altcoin market capitalization fell to the lowest.
Altcoin season: From the lowest point of the altcoin market capitalization to the peak of the bull market, the market generally rose in this stage, altcoins performed the strongest, Ethereum also performed quite well, and Bitcoin's increase was generally conservative.
Each of these stages lasts about 9 to 15 months. The market is currently in the middle stage of the "BTC/ETH season". Compared with the previous round, the wash season is shorter, so it is expected that the BTC/ETH season may be extended. From the perspective of time span, the last BTC/ETH season lasted about 8 months after the halving, and the current season is only 3 months after the halving, so there is still about 5 months of time difference.
In terms of expected increase, the overall increase of the last BTC/ETH season reached 480%, while the increase of the current season is only 100% of the previous round, indicating that there is still a lot of room for growth.
Based on historical performance and expectations, Ethereum is one of the excellent holding assets at the current stage, because it usually performs very well in the BTC/ETH season and the alt season.
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