Let me first state a point of view. This round of market started from 15,500 to a new high of 73,777. This market has been subverting everyone's habits and cognition. Repeated differentiation has become the main theme, and the money-making effect is extremely poor. The bull market belongs to the big pie, but 90% of the investors in the market will not buy the big pie. They basically rush into the copycat and expect the history of the copycat season to repeat itself. As a result, except for a few individual sectors, the rest were wiped out!
So I have been thinking about a question. Is it possible that the bull market we are seeing is not a real bull market, but just a big rebound passively stimulated by Bitcoin under specific circumstances (institutional allocation, ETF). When some people in the market start to shout that the bear market is coming, perhaps the real bull market has not yet started?
Let's take a look. From the perspective of carving a boat to find a sword, the decline of this round of Bitcoin is not as large as the previous bear market, and the increase after reaching a new high is far less than the previous market. In other words, this new high is emotional, not an actual breakthrough. In other words, when Bitcoin was 15,500, there should have been a new low or it should have entered a relatively long period of shock bottoming, but well-informed large institutions and funds knew the news of Bitcoin ETF in advance and entered the market to absorb funds. The funds pushed the original structural form, and then went up all the way under the continuous fermentation of the news, reaching a new high. Because it did not fall enough or the bottom consolidation time was insufficient, it was unable to rise after reaching a new high and fell into adjustment.
If we sort it out in this way, then the current position we are in is likely to be the rebound range after the last bull market crash, similar to the market trend from January to June 2019. The difference is that this round of rise has set a new high, and the corresponding new high trend will restrict the extent of subsequent corrections. Therefore, the probability of a black swan relay plunge on March 12 after the overall drop in 2019 is very small, and the adjustment will be carried out in a milder form.
So if the view is established, where might the final callback position go? On the 5th, the price of Bitcoin fell to 53485, which is actually not far from the bottom. For this type of adjustment, the places where the decline is easier to stop generally appear at the 61.8% and 50% positions of Fibonacci. For example, if 73777 is used as the starting segment, it is 51000 and 44000 respectively. If 69000 is used as the starting segment, it is 48000 and 42000 respectively! As mentioned earlier, the new high of Bitcoin in this round is not a real breakthrough, so I still prefer the two positions of 48000 and 42000, especially 48000, which is a point worth entering the market or adding positions. If it breaks 48000, the support of 42000 will overlap with the shutdown price of most new mining machines on the market. The support will be very solid and belong to a relatively extreme position. If I have the opportunity to get here, I will definitely give it a try!
Having said so much, I just want to make everyone understand one thing, the big trend is not over yet, it is very likely that there is another big wave yet to come! If you have coins in your hands, don’t worry too much. If you have funds, you can cover your positions at the support level. If you don’t have them, as long as it is spot, you can just hold it with confidence. It may be uncomfortable for a while, but the future is still worth looking forward to!
Finally, let's talk about the rhythm of layout. At this stage, we should pay more attention to the Ethereum ecosystem and SOL ecosystem. In July, the Ethereum ETF is likely to be settled, and there will be big positives stimulated by news at any time. In addition, many currencies have been adjusted sufficiently, and the safety margin is relatively high. The SOL ecosystem is because SOL may take over the next ETF application after Ethereum, and the topic is high. The characteristic of the SOL system is that it is relatively strong, so it is recommended to pay attention to it.
The recent selling pressure of the big cake is not small, and the market in July and August will also be extremely complicated. Don't chase the rise and sell the fall, watch more and do less, and stay away from the contract! Overcome your greed and fear, wait for the clouds to clear, and then you can see the moon!
