đ„ Found an interesting statistic - a 12-month moving average (annual average) is superimposed on the unemployment graph. When the unemployment rate becomes higher than the average value for the previous year (crossing the sliding line) - this is a sign of an approaching recession.
đĄ On average, the advance is two months. Now the delay is much longer, however, it must be understood that the official recognition of the recession comes with a long delay - it takes months (it took 16 months during the 2008 recessionđ), so it cannot be ruled out that in the future our present will belong to the period recession
âïžThere is a certain optimization, and also, historical events do not guarantee repetition in the future. But in any case, this graph carries direct logic.