There are 20 minutes left, let's briefly talk about the recent market and trends.
First, Bitcoin is regarded as the bottom of the bull market at $53,000. The recent Mentougou compensation and the German government's selling have triggered panic selling, but these negative factors have been factored into the current price. (These contents have been mentioned in the previous analysis chart)
Second, the market has not yet entered a bear market and is currently running above the bull market's accelerated rise point. The US election and interest rate cuts will bring in new funds. The spot is temporarily trapped, and the VC coins waiting to be unlocked may take the opportunity to exit.
Third, whether it is the Mentougou compensation or the German government's selling pressure, these negative factors have been factored into the current price. The over-the-counter U price and non-agricultural data indicate that funds are entering the market. Tonight's non-agricultural data has a significant impact on the market. If it is lower than expected, its positive effect may double. The previous value was 27.2, the forecast was 19, and the unemployment rate was 4%. The data is expected to be lower than expected, which will be beneficial to the interest rate cut and boost market confidence.
Then, after nearly ten months of the initial bull market, a large number of long-term holders gradually became tired and may consider withdrawing funds and waiting to buy back at a lower point, causing the market volatility platform to move down until the bulls enter the market and cooperate with the subsequent explosive news to usher in a crazy bull market. I personally think it is difficult to return to above $70,000 before the interest rate cut is implemented. After the ETH ETF is passed, the future direction of the 3 million ETH held by Grayscale is unclear. After listing, it may refer to the trend of BTC 1.08-1.10.
Final conclusion: (key points)
In summary, long orders (opening positions within 54,500) are recommended to stop loss below $53,000 and cooperate with non-agricultural data to pull the market. Considering the small probability of negative events, the long orders below are reduced or exited at $56,500, and the specific adjustment will be made after the data is released.
Expected higher: Smashing, first to $50,000, then possibly falling to $48,800;
In line with expectations: Yin rises to around $56,500;
Below expectations: Extreme value of $59,500-60,000 (set long-term short orders here).
It is expected that the trend will fluctuate at a low level before August, shaking the warehouse, forcing the trapped chips to cut losses and leave the market.
