The Nasdaq was closed on Thursday, and the cryptocurrency market fell alone, with Bitcoin falling below $57,000. On July 3, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for the 33rd and 22nd time this year, respectively. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 fell to 0.05, indicating a market divergence.
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The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision approved a framework for banks to disclose exposure to crypto assets and agreed to targeted revisions to its crypto asset standards, including a set of standardized public forms and templates covering banks' exposure to crypto assets. The implementation date is January 1, 2026. The Basel Committee agreed to update the interest rate shock size and related methods in the interest rate risk standard for bank books, and agreed to consult on the latest principles for sound management of third-party risks. The Blockchain Association, a US cryptocurrency lobbying group, submitted a friend of the court brief to the US Tenth Circuit Court in support of Custodia Bank's lawsuit against the Federal Reserve. The chief legal officer of Blockchain Association said that the Federal Reserve's claim that digital assets raise security and robustness issues protects large existing banks and makes it more difficult for industry participants to find banking partners, leaving customers in trouble. On July 4, EmberCN data showed that the address marked as "German Government" transferred 1,300 BTC to centralized platforms. Web3 security agency Certik released the "Hack3d: Web3.0 Security Report for the Second Quarter and the First Half of 2024", stating that in the second quarter of 2024, a total of 184 on-chain security incidents occurred, with losses reaching $688 million. Galaxy Digital reported that the crypto venture capital market continued to pick up in the second quarter of 2024, with crypto and blockchain companies receiving $3.19 billion in venture capital, a slight increase from $3.16 billion in the first quarter. There were 739 crypto venture capital transactions in the second quarter, an increase of 8% from the first quarter. Steve Kurz, head of Galaxy Digital Asset Management, said that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may approve the spot ETH ETF by the end of July and is optimistic about more cryptocurrency ETFs.
QCP Capital said that concerns about a large number of BTC sales after the MtGox compensation may exacerbate bearish sentiment. MtGox will begin to compensate customer assets in July, which may bring selling pressure to both markets. It is expected that the price will rise to $150,000 after the MtGox compensation is completed. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that one of the biggest suspense will disappear in July, which is one reason for the expected sharp rebound in the second half of the year. Matrixport said that as the total market value fell from $2.7 trillion to $2.3 trillion, the daily trading volume of cryptocurrencies also fell from $180 billion to $50 billion. There is a saying in traditional finance that "don't short a depressed market" because a little momentum can push up prices. This may also apply to the crypto market because during the summer downturn, the market may see a wave of rebounds in view of multiple possible stimulus factors (such as the Fed's interest rate cuts, the US election, etc.). The Nasdaq was closed on Thursday, and the currency market fell alone, with the big cake falling below $57,000. QCP Capital said that it was another day of heavy selling pressure, and BTC miners showed signs of capitulation. Historically, this is related to the bottoming of prices. The last similar hash rate drop occurred in 2022, when BTC reached $17,000. Breaking the downward trend may require two factors: the liquidation clusters of BTC and ETH are heavily biased to the upside, opening up potential short squeezes; with the approval of the S-1 form approaching, the approval of the spot ETHETF may cause ETH to rebound sharply. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, said that unless "the Federal Reserve really stops spending money like a drunk sailor", the future of BTC is guaranteed. The Congressional Budget Office reported two weeks ago that the U.S. budget deficit is expected to increase by 27% to $1.9 trillion next year.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes emphasized that U.S. spending is likely to only increase. The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 index fell to 0.05, indicating market differentiation. In the past five years, the two have been highly positively correlated. In early 2024, both rose significantly. Since 2019, BTC and the S&P 500 index have increased four times. A negative correlation occurs, each indicating local lows in BTC price. Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, said that the closest analogous situation that can be found is the range in May 2021, when BTC and altcoins also experienced a parabolic rise, and the $50 billion-plus cryptocurrency leverage here is also close to historical The highest levels, experienced several times during the mid-bull market of 2020-2021, may require several months of choppy/downtrend (recovery period) before a reversal to the upward trend may occur. The CoinMarketCap report stated that the market in the second half of 2024 can already see many opportunities. Whether it is the supply shock after the halving, or the first Fed interest rate cut since 2021, as well as the upcoming US election, these will allow the crypto market to gain New motivation. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that several participants said that if inflation continues to be at a high level or rises further, interest rates may need to be raised; the vast majority of members believe that economic growth is gradually cooling, and the Fed is waiting for more information to gain confidence in cutting interest rates. Fed Goolsby said there is still a lot of information to be learned about the economy and it is dangerous to keep interest rates high for a long time. Federal Reserve Chairman Daly warned that the job market is approaching an inflection point and further slowdown could lead to a rise in unemployment. Analysts at ActivTrades said gold prices rose while the dollar fell, mainly driven by Fed chief Powell's admission that inflation is finally moving in the right direction, while today's data showed labor demand has cooled. Powell's comments raised traders' expectations that the Fed Interest rates will be cut shortly after the end of the summer. On July 3, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at record highs for the 33rd and 22nd times this year respectively.
On July 4, the panic and greed index of the cryptocurrency market was 44, and the level changed from neutral to fear. The reason for BTC's weakness comes from the selling pressure of MtGox and the selling behavior of German and American addresses. On Friday, the US announced the unemployment rate in June, the previous value was 4%, and the expected value was 4%; the non-farm employment in June was 272,000, and the expected value was 190,000. Richard Galvin, co-founder of the hedge fund Digital Asset Capital Management, said: If the weak economic data in the United States stimulates people to bet on the Fed to relax monetary policy, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market may change and boost market sentiment. In the halving years of the first two cycles, Bitcoin experienced a deep correction after the halving, and this cycle did not avoid it. Every time there is a deep correction, the old man is also desperate. He has thought that the cryptocurrency market is over many times, but after the wash, the cryptocurrency market has set new highs again and again, and Bitcoin has the cyclical nature of commodities. Looking at the short term, there are various views/reasons; looking at the long term, it maintains the inherent trough/peak cyclicality. Now it is at the bottom of the wave again. The old man has adapted and is no longer very emotional. Corresponding to the cyclical nature of the past, the process is not very comfortable, but the result is good. #比特币走势分析 #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划
