#拜登 #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期

"Biden withdraws from the election this weekend"? The market is pricing in this possibility

With the recent dramatic changes in the US election situation, speculation that Biden will give up the campaign has been rampant. According to a report by the Global Times on Wednesday, CNN broke the news that some senior US Democratic Party officials "hope that Biden will withdraw from the election this week." The gambling market believes that the probability of his continued participation in the election is less than 50%.

Global markets began to adjust rapidly to cope with the risk that Biden may issue a withdrawal statement during the July 4 Independence Day holiday or the following weekend. After the first debate, the market has already responded, and the US dollar has risen significantly. The bond market has reacted particularly violently, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has risen by as much as 20 basis points in the following days.

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