Fed's Powell refuses to talk about rate cuts

On Wednesday, the data released by the United States showed that the number of "small non-farm" ADP employment in June was 150,000, lower than the expected value of 160,000 and lower than the previous value of 152,000. The number of initial unemployment claims in the week was 238,000, higher than the expected value of 235,000 and higher than the previous value of 233,000. On July 2, Federal Reserve Director Powell refused to comment on the issue of September interest rate cuts, saying: It is too early to assert whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in late summer. The big cake fell every day, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes hit new highs every day, and the price of gold rose 1.1% to $2,355 per ounce.

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Patrick Hansen, senior director of EU strategy and policy at Circle, and Dante Disparte, chief strategy officer at Circle, wrote a report pointing out that with the application of MiCA this year, the EU cryptocurrency market is expected to usher in a year of change. The EU market is expected to be localized, institutionalized, professionalized and possibly integrated. Local and global stablecoin products will either comply with regulations or eventually disappear from the EU market in the short to medium term. It is expected that the growth and competition of euro-denominated stablecoins will intensify. Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett said that in Consensys' lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a Texas judge has approved Consensys's lawyer's request to speed up the decision on whether the U.S. SEC has the right to regulate MetaMask, and a ruling is expected to be made at the end of the year/early 2025. According to Arkham data, Trump's cryptocurrency holdings fell to $9.29 million. On June 5, his cryptocurrency holdings once exceeded $31 million, a drop of more than 70% from the high point. Arkham said that Sun Yuchen's on-chain assets in ETH and TRC, which were analyzed in February, were worth about $1.4 billion, and are now worth about $1 billion. On July 2, Justin Sun transferred 30 million USDT to CEX, and on the same day, he transferred 50 million stablecoins to the exchange through three addresses. ETH founder Vitalik Buterin said that prediction markets and community notes are becoming the two flagship social cognitive technologies of the 2020s, based on open public participation rather than pre-selected elites. Musk responded to Vitalik Buterin in a post, giving affirmation and recognition. The Gemini report pointed out that the ETH spot ETF is expected to usher in a net inflow of up to US$5 billion in the first six months after its approval in the United States.

The report analyzed that the market value of ETH relative to BTC is close to a multi-year low, and strong capital inflows may trigger a price rebound. If the ETH/BTC ratio returns to the median of the past three years, there may be a nearly 20% increase. K33 Research analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman reported that the ETH spot ETF may outperform BTC in the weeks after it goes online in the United States. With the arrival of summer and the accumulation of funds, the ETF has become a solid catalyst for the relative strength of ETH. They remain optimistic about the prospects of ETH and expect that within five months after its launch, the net inflow will be equivalent to 0.75-1% of the circulating supply of ETH. On July 3, U.S. stocks rose and broke new highs as usual. The Nasdaq index rose 0.88% to 18,188 points, breaking a record high; the S&P 500 index rose 0.5%, breaking a record high. Bitcoin is still falling. The address marked as "German Government" transferred out 832.74 BTC. The address currently holds 43,859 BTC. Since June 19, 7,828 BTC have been transferred out, worth about $496.33 million. In June, the spot BTC ETF still received a net inflow of $790 million, and BlackRock IBIT inflows exceeded $1 billion, offsetting the outflow of Grayscale GBTC. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that the BTC ETF achieved net positive flows in a single day, a single week, and a single month. It was originally thought that the situation would be worse during the market decline, but during this period, the net flow from the beginning of the year to date has stabilized at +14.6 billion, which is a good sign. The BTC ETF remains strong in the "retreat" stage. The inflow of funds in June benefited in part from the expectation of the spot ETH ETF, indicating that regulators are gradually accepting the cryptocurrency industry as part of the financial system. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that BTC may hit a record high in August and reach $100,000 in November, maintaining the target price of BTC at $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $10,000 by 2025. Standard Chartered Bank believes that Trump is good for BTC. River data shows that as of the end of the first quarter of 2024, 13 of the top 25 hedge funds in the United States held BTC ETF exposure, of which Millennium Management held 27,263 BTC, worth $1.69 billion, accounting for about 2.5% of its total assets under management (worth $67.7 billion).

Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said that the spot ETH ETF will be issued in mid-July, and the revised S-1 will expire on July 8. The final S-1 may be submitted before July 12, which theoretically means it will be launched in the week of July 15. On Wednesday, data released by the United States showed that the number of "small non-agricultural" ADP employment in June was 150,000, lower than the previous value of 152,000; the number of initial unemployment claims in the week was 238,000, higher than the previous value of 233,000. In June, U.S. companies added employees at a more moderate pace, and wage growth slowed, consistent with the gradual cooling of labor demand. In addition, the number of initial unemployment claims continued to increase last week. On July 2, Federal Reserve Director Powell reiterated that inflation had made "significant progress", but refused to comment on questions about the September rate cut. Powell said: It is too early to say whether the Fed will cut interest rates in late summer; one risk of inflation is that the Fed moves too quickly, and another risk is that the Fed waits too long. If the labor market weakens unexpectedly, this will also prompt us to take action; the Fed has the ability to take time to make a decision to cut interest rates, although he is well aware of the risk of "acting too slowly and too late." Fed Goolsbee said: If the housing inflation measure used in Europe is used, the Fed has reached the 2% target, and he does not think that the last mile of fighting inflation will take longer. The CME interest rate futures market believes that the probability of the Fed's first rate cut before September is about 70%. The Nasdaq rose 0.88% on Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, and the price of gold rose 1.1% to $2,355/ounce, and the big cake was inserted downward. At present, the performance of the big cake compared with the US stock market is like the performance of the altcoin compared with the big cake, two worlds of ice and fire. The negative news is not over yet, the bottom is grinding, and the big cake is in the headwind. When the monetary easing tailwind of the previous cycle comes, the big cake will significantly outperform the US stock market. The bottom is grinding and the ineffective time will also end. It is expected that the probability of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September is 70%, and we will continue to wait in the summer. #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 #非农就业数据即将公布 #以太坊ETF批准预期