Interpretation of macro data on July 3: US ADP employment in June (10,000 people)
Oh! Fuck, I have to say that the layoff data has decreased significantly, and the ADP data has also decreased. Today's ADP expectations have failed to meet expectations. Audience, please laugh as much as you can (at least it is good data)
US ADP employment in June (10,000 people), previous value 15.2, expected 16 (15.7 before this week's adjustment, 15.8 last week)
The data recorded 15, which is lower than expected and lower than the previous value. The private enterprise employment data has worsened compared with last month, which is also the opposite of the May JOLTs job vacancy data last night
The data shows that the current employment situation of private enterprises in the United States continues to cool down, the business conditions of enterprises have deteriorated, and the economic activity has become less, which is not conducive to economic growth. At the same time, it will also put pressure on the unemployment rate on Friday
This data is bearish for the US economy, the US dollar and US stocks, and is good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts
The ADP data is slightly lower than that in May, which will bring greater unemployment on Friday If the unemployment rate in June continues to remain at 4% or even reaches 4.1%, it will be good for the market to expect a rate cut in September, but for the Fed, it will still be "hard-mouthed". After all, Powell also said yesterday that intervention will only be carried out when there is an unexpected situation in the job market.
At the same time, ADP data shows that the mild cooling of employment data will slow down wage growth, which is also an important positive effect on inflation control. Inflation caused by wage growth has always been a "chronic disease".
Currently, the unemployment rate calculated according to ADP data is 4%, but the accurate official unemployment rate still needs to wait for Friday's data.
The data is positive, and the crypto market has not risen. It is not data-immune, but the current bullish sentiment is not positive enough. Wait patiently for the direction of the US stock market after the opening to see whether the rise of the US stock market will bring positive effects to the crypto market, otherwise Bitcoin will test the support range of 58,000-59,0000 below. Testing the support so quickly is not a good thing.
Currently, the US stock market is mixed before the market opens, and the US stock futures market is volatile.
It is also important to note that Thursday is a US holiday and most financial markets will be closed for one day. I hope that the crypto market can rebound and stabilize tonight under the leadership of the US stock market. Otherwise, it will remain around 60,000, which is still a bit dangerous.
