#BTC #ETH Market analysis: Bearish sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and the decline is widening. Can tonight’s small non-farm payrolls save the decline?
At 9 a.m. in the early stages of Asian trading, Bitcoin started a new round of decline during the day, with the price hitting 60,320 before rebounding.
Observing the disk of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the decline has expanded from yesterday's 1-hour Bollinger Band oscillation to the 4-hour Bollinger Band range oscillation, and the decline of both Bitcoin and Ethereum also successfully touched the lower line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band and paused. At present, the short sentiment has been temporarily alleviated, and the market is waiting for further signals.
Let’s take a look at the BTC/ETH market:
BTC：
From the daily trend, Bitcoin has been running at the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band for 21 days, and the price has never been able to return to the upper track. This means that the daily moving average trend has been in a downward state. If you want to change, the price must return to the upper track of the daily line and maintain a stable operation. At the same time, the daily Bollinger Band middle line, which keeps dropping, has been suppressing the price rebound upper line.
As can be seen from the figure, the current price can basically be regarded as an interval oscillation mode of the entire daily Bollinger band lower track, and because the moving average continues to move downward, the price has been in a volatile downward trend.
Support: Currently, the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower line of 60,500 temporarily stabilizes the downward trend, but if the market sentiment continues to be pessimistic, the daily level decline will inevitably cause prices to continue to fall. The effective support range below is 58,000-59,000. This range can be said to be a dense and effective support range in the near future. This range has various support data from the MA200 weekly and monthly lines as well as the daily Bollinger Bands. It is also regarded as the lower limit of the current range box oscillation. If this position is not effectively broken, there will be no more room to look down for the time being.
Resistance: The current price is at the lower line of the 4 small Bollinger bands. If there is a rebound at this position, first look at the breakthrough and stabilization near 62,300. If it stabilizes, continue to look to around 63,400, especially the latter. This position is the middle line of the daily Bollinger band that has not been able to break through and stabilize in the past 21 days. Only when the price completely breaks through and stabilizes at this position can the overall downward trend at the daily level be changed.
RSI: Daily level 38, 4-hour level 36. Although the price has fallen, it has not triggered an oversold rebound signal in the short term. A rebound requires encouragement from off-market sentiment.
ETH：
The trend is similar to that of Bitcoin. The intraday decline successfully touched the 3340 support we talked about yesterday and temporarily stabilized. Currently, there is volatility again, resulting in a long-short game at this position.
The price has been unable to return to the upper track of the daily Bollinger Band for 24 consecutive trading days, which is similar to the trend of Bitcoin. The recent popularity of ETFs only allowed Ethereum to break through the upper track of the daily line once, but unfortunately it fell back to its original position during the day.
At the same time, Ethereum is the same as Bitcoin. After breaking through the 1-hour Bollinger Band trend yesterday, it fell to the lower line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band. What is more pessimistic than Bitcoin is that the 4-hour lower line support has been broken. At present, the lower line support of the daily Bollinger Band is 3300.
Support: The daily Bollinger Bands at the nearest point are at 3300, which I think is more like a buffer. If this position falls below, I am sorry. I think the only support above 3000 is the MA200 support at 3080. It sounds a bit pessimistic. Everyone has their own opinions.
Resistance: look at 3420-3450. The 4-hour Bollinger band middle line resistance is consistent with the daily Bollinger band resistance. This range will form a larger resistance in the rebound. Pay close attention to the breakthrough situation. Don't be bullish on invalid breakthroughs.
RSI: 4-hour index 31, daily index 41, 4-hour index is about to hit oversold rebound, while the daily sentiment is still far from oversold, according to the 4-hour RSI indexism daily support rebound near 3300. This position may touch the oversold rebound sentiment of RSI.
--------------------------------------------------
The overall market is mixed. The good news is that the dense support below keeps moving upward, which limits the future downward space and prevents further declines in the short term (except for major negative news). However, from a technical perspective, Ethereum is more pessimistic than Bitcoin. The bad news is that the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum for nearly a month have not been able to reach the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, causing the daily moving average to move downward continuously and the short-term rebound resistance to be continuously suppressed.
At present, the effective support below and the resistance above are constantly tightening, and the market needs to have a large-scale deterministic market in the future.
The current sentiment in the market is not good. From yesterday's 1-hour shock to the 4-hour, the decline continues to expand, and the bearish sentiment is also expanding. This is also related to last night's data. The current upward breakthrough, the downward trend can only rely on tonight's small non-agricultural data and Friday's large non-agricultural data to bring positive sentiment to the market.
Moreover, judging from the recent trends, the positive weight of Ethereum's ETF is far less than the macro sentiment, and the overall market sentiment is still too pessimistic and cautious.
