The BTC rate showed significant growth over the weekend, but there is a gap at the bottom and the asset is locally overbought. A noticeable rebound has finally begun. But there are important conditions for its transition to a reversal.

While rising over the weekend, the price has already broken through the downward trend since June 7, which we wrote about in all the latest reviews. This is an important signal of a chance for a reversal. It's important to stay higher.

The growth for yesterday was 3%, in general, the growth from June 29 to today’s high was 5.65%. As a result, buyers closed the weekly candle in a bullish manner - “Bull Hammer”.

It can only be better if this week's candle closes above $67,282 without a bearish shadow on top. Then it will be a “Morning Star” on the weekly TF, which is a very strong signal for future growth. In this case, we will bet on the ATH update in July. Moreover, historically this month is not bad for BTC.

Day candles on June 28-30 can also be considered, albeit with nuances, as the “Morning Star”. This three-candle reversal pattern also works well on the daily#BTCTF. The minimum goal that is needed in its development to transform the rebound into a reversal is to break through the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently $65,099) and consolidate higher.

Yesterday's daily candle closed right below the volume level of $62,987, and today's, having reached $63,820 at the moment, has now also returned below the volume level of $62,987. So far, having almost tested the 0.382 Fibonacci level, holding higher.

AT THE SAME TIME, on the four-hour timeframe, after the active growth on June 29-30, the question of correction is ripe; there is an “Expensive” signal from the trend reversal indicator, built on the candlestick technique of Thomas DeMark.

Plus, there is another strong argument for a local correction - during the rapid growth over the weekend, a gap of more than $1,500, in the range of $60,420-$62,080, formed on the#BTCfutures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

On older TFs the gap is smaller, but it is also there. Four-hour TF: $61,105-62,080, daily TF: $61,920-62,080. But the presence of a gap on older timeframes only increases the likelihood of its complete closure. At the same time, Monday’s growth covered the only gap at the top, $64,005-$64,320. The “magnet” at the top has already worked.

Despite the fact that the four-hour timeframe announces a correction and there is a gap on the CME, this downward movement may be short-term. Daily RSI and MACD look good for growth. According to MACD, there is a chance for a bullish crossover, but for this you need to close the day above $62,987. According to the RSI for June 28-29, a breakdown of the downward trend since June 5 took place and an upward period was outlined.

True, for now we are only talking about level 44. Buyers still have to fight before the test and, especially, the breakdown of level 50.

Now the minimum goal for the bulls is to stay above the downward trend since June 7 (currently $62,178) and above the EMA 200 of the four-hour TF (currently there). An important combo of supports. An excellent signal now would be a break of the corrective signal on the four-hour TF and a breakdown of the volume level of $64,120 and EMA 50 of this TF (currently $64,782)

An important reason for the weekend's growth was the whale's purchases of $450 million with 500 BTC orders on Binance futures. Trader and crypto blogger DeFi^2 (61.2 thousand subscribers in X) points to this on-chain data:

“...almost all of this weekend's rebound came from one entity on Binance Perps, which made over $450ml worth of purchases across 500 BTC blocks at once (during the lowest liquidity hours in the market).

Curious to see what the ending will be like right before the Mt Gox hand starts. With a position of this size, to get out they would either have to push the market high enough to cause a short squeeze, or end up becoming a huge cascading risk if the market moves against them."